Partick Thistle 1 v 0 Ayr United: Match Review

Ayr United fell to a narrow 1-0 defeat to promotion-chasing Partick Thistle at the WrightKerr Stadium at Ferhill on Saturday.

Sebastian Drozd scored the only goal of the game from close-range just seven minutes from half-time, which saw Partick move up to second in the table. 

Ayr remain without a win from their last three games, and will be keen to get back to winning ways in the near future

The experts from Andy’s Bet Club will be reviewing all of our games in the 2026/27 season, and you can find more of the free football tips they offer on their website.

Attack

Partick Thistle had 12 shots to Ayr United's seven, with four on target against three, for an expected goals (xG) total of 1.55. Ayr United's total sat close behind at 1.28, built mainly around one big chance.

Sebastian Drozd settled the game in the 38th minute, converting from a corner with a shot worth 0.48 xG. 

Tony Watt had the next-best openings either side of half-time, a headed effort at 0.14 xG and a right-footed shot at 0.30 xG that both went unrewarded, while Aidan Fitzpatrick also had two late shots on goal worth 0.07 and 0.15.

Ayr United's biggest moment came three minutes after the restart, when Olly Whyte struck a left-footed effort worth 0.67 xG, the single highest-value shot of the match, but it did not go in. 

Partick Thistle found most of their danger down the flanks, with 47% of their xG coming from 13 attacks on the left, while Ayr United's threat was concentrated centrally, with 70% of their xG coming from nine attacks through the middle.

Defence

Partick Thistle pressed with a PPDA (Passes per Defensive Action) of 8.6, meaning they allowed Ayr United fewer than nine passes for every defensive action in their attacking third, well ahead of Ayr United's own figure of 13.4. 

Partick Thistle also made more recoveries, 106 to 95, including 38 in Ayr United's half compared with 31 the other way.

Partick Thistle won 80 of 144 duels to Ayr United's 63, and were especially dominant in the air, winning 31 of 45 aerial duels against Ayr United's 14.

Partick’s Liam McFarlane made three saves, including one reflex save, and kept a clean sheet from three shots faced. 

At the other end, Harry Stone also made three saves, two of them reflex stops, but was beaten once by Drozd.

Possession

Partick Thistle held 60% of possession to Ayr United's 40, and were the more accurate passing side, 79% against Ayr’s 73%. They also moved the ball into the final third more often, completing 44 of 73 attempts compared with Ayr United's 27 of 47.

Progressive passing showed a similar gap. Partick Thistle completed 73 of their 97, three-quarters of the total, while Ayr United managed 36 of 59. Partick Thistle also reached the opponent's penalty area in 19% of their possessions against 10% for Ayr United, and their average possession lasted 15 seconds to Ayr United's 11.

Set pieces

Partick Thistle won five corners to Ayr United's three, and it was from one of these that Drozd scored the only goal of the game in the 38th minute. Daniel O'Reilly also had a header from a corner later on, worth 0.09 xG, that went unconverted.

Ayr United's best set-piece contribution came from open play rather than dead balls, with Ben Summers' second-half corner producing only a low-value chance. Partick Thistle completed 11 of 21 crosses on the day, more than half, while Ayr United managed just three of 15.

Players

Drozd scored the winner from a corner and completed 22 of his 29 accurate passes, though his own service from set pieces went largely elsewhere, as he also served eight corners himself over the 93 minutes. 

Aidan Fitzpatrick had the highest expected assists (xA) figure in the match at 0.77 without registering an assist, completed five of his eight successful dribbles, and put in three key passes.

Daniel O'Reilly was busy across 102 actions, completed 60 of 74 passes, and had a headed chance from a corner late on. 

For Ayr United, Olly Whyte's 49th-minute effort was the game's highest-value single chance at 0.67 xG. Owen Stirton also had two shots worth a combined 0.34 xG before he was replaced in the 66th minute.

Conclusion

The numbers back up a result built on control rather than fireworks. Partick Thistle had the better of possession, pressing, duels won and final-third passing throughout, and their win came from the one clear-cut moment they created from a corner. 

Ayr United's game hinged on Whyte's 49th-minute chance, the highest individual xG of the match, which stayed at 0-1 rather than becoming an equaliser.

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