Ayr United 2-0 Arbroath: Match Review

Ayr United’s unbeaten start to the 2026/27 season continued, as they ran out 2-0 winners over Arbroath in matchday one in the Scottish Championship. 

It’s now five competitive wins in a row for Gary Naysmith’s side, who won all four of their League Cup games last month.

We’ve teamed up with Andy’s Bet Club again for the 2026/27 season, and their experts will provide a weekly statistical match review, as well as delving deeper into the numbers behind the victory.

Here’s a look back at Ayr’s Scottish Championship opener at the weekend.

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Attack

Ayr United had eight shots in total, four of them on target, for a combined expected goals figure of 0.94. 

Both of Ayr United's goals came from shots rated below 0.25 xG individually, so the finishing on the day mattered as much as the chances created.

Six of Ayr United's eight shots came from inside the penalty area, with three of those being on target. 

Owen Stirton was the main creator of opportunities, as he took four shots worth 0.42 xG, which was more than any other Ayr United player.

Broken down by area of the pitch, 16 of Ayr United's attacks were built through the centre of the pitch, accounting for 40% of the side's overall chance quality. 

The left flank produced only four attacks but a similar share of the danger at 41%, while the right flank contributed 19% from eight attacks. Dylan Watret's crossing from the right was the main source of service into the box.

Defence

Despite losing the game, Arbroath had 13 shots to Ayr United's eight, and their expected goals total of 1.75 was the higher of the two teams. 

Three of those shots were on target and all three were saved by Ayr shot-stopper Harry Stone, including smart stops on efforts from Arbroath midfielder Thomas O'Brien, worth 0.43 in post-shot expected goals, and substitute Scott Robinson, worth 0.49. 

Ayr United's PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) was 24.3, meaning they let Arbroath complete approximately 24 passes before taking a defensive action in the press. 

Arbroath's figure was much lower at 14.3, which indicated a higher press from the visitors, as they looked to get back into the game, which they ultimately fell short in doing. 

Ayr United won more of the aerial duels, as they came out on top in 22 of the 40 they were faced with. Not only this, but they made more clearances as well, making 39 compared to Arbroath's 21. 

Arbroath won more of the ground duels overall, as they won 82 of 152 duels, whilst Ayr came out on top in slightly less, as they won 70, as they opted for a more defensive style late on. 

Possession

Arbroath held the larger share of possession in the clash with Ayr, as they had 55% of the ball on the day. Not only this, but they edged the pass accuracy figures too, having had 79% compared to Ayr’s 77%. 

Arbroath's possessions reached the opponent's half more often, 71 times out of 117 compared with Ayr United's 48 out of 106, although both sides reached the penalty area 14 times each. 

The additional spells of possession that Arbroath enjoyed didn’t translate into a matching increase in shots created in the most dangerous areas of the pitch, as they fell to a defeat on the opening day of the 2026/27 season.

When it came to Ayr United's progressive passes in the win over Arbroath, the hosts attempted 58, with 41 of those being completed. In contrast, Arbroath completed 55 of their 85 progressive pass attempts as they looked to reduce the deficit late on. 

Ayr United's passing was the more direct of the two sides as well, with an average pass length of 18.7 metres, compared to Arbroath's average pass length of 20.4. It’s not too surprising to see the visitors having the longer pass length, as they reverted to a longer ball style in the later stages.

Set pieces

Arbroath had more set-pieces in the match, as they won seven corners compared to Ayr United's three. Five of those seven corners led to a shot as well, which is a 71% conversion into an attempt, while none of Ayr United's three corners produced a single shot, which ultimately didn’t matter too much, as they made it eight straight wins in all competitions.

Ayr United had the better game from open play crossing, with six of their 13 crosses finding a team-mate compared with three of Arbroath's 17. 

Players

Ben Summers scored the opening goal just before the half-time whistle, from a shot worth 0.03 expected goals, as his shot beat Aidan McAdams in the Arbroath goal. Summers also carried an expected assists figure of 0.21 across the match, which was more than any Ayr United team-mate. 

Owen Stirton was the busiest creator for Ayr on the day, taking four shots for 0.42 xG and drawing five fouls, which was the most of any player on the pitch. 

Ross Taylor replaced Kieran Shanks in the 14th minute and scored Ayr’s second goal 11 minutes from time, with a shot rated at 0.20 xG.

For Arbroath, Ryan Dow proved to be the biggest individual threat on the day, with three shots worth a combined 0.85 xG, including a chance rated at 0.62 in the 36th minute, which was the best opportunity created by either side all match in terms of xG. Second-half substitute Scott Robinson also had a shot worth 0.31 xG in the closing stages which was saved by Ayr’s Harry Stone.

Conclusion

Ayr United scored twice from eight shots worth 0.94 expected goals in total, while restricting Arbroath's higher total of 1.75 expected goals to efforts that were all saved. 

Arbroath had more of the ball and progressed it further up the pitch, but the two sides created an equal number of possessions reaching the penalty area, and it was Ayr United who took the chances that fell their way, which ultimately proved to be the difference between the teams.

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