Statistical Preview: St Johnstone vs Ayr United

Knocked out of the Challenge Cup by Inverness at Somerset Park on Tuesday, Ayr have the opportunity to make amends for that disappointment with a trip to Perth to face St Johnstone.

Saints lead the league on 51 points while Ayr are simply battling to make the play-offs as they lie 4th on 33 points, albeit having played two games fewer than their weekend opponents.

St Johnstone's Form Guide

Using the St Johnstone vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Perth Saints have been difficult to beat at home - but they certainly have not been perfect. Although they have conceded only nine times at McDiarmid Park, they have drawn five of their 13 matches, while Ayr edged through in the Challenge Cup up the A9 just 10 days ago.

1-1 Draw vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Raith Rovers (A) – Championship

3-3 Draw (lost 5-4 on penalties) vs Ayr (H) – Challenge Cup

1-0 Win vs Airdrie (A) – Championship

2-2 Draw vs Partick (H) – Championship

St Johnstone's Recent League Matches:

Queen's Park vs St Johnstone:

Tuesday’s trip to Lesser Hampden proved a frustrating experience for St Johnstone as they dominated struggling Queen’s Park only to emerge with a 1-1 draw due to a late strike from the hosts. It was the only effort that the Glasgow side managed on target over the course of the game, and it was one of just three shots that totalled 0.38 xG. On the other hand, Saints generated 1.49 xG, but Josh Fowler’s effort against his former club was not enough to get the win.

Before opening the scoring, the Perth side had found shot generation hard. They had only mustered four comparatively low-quality efforts in the first half, during which they controlled possession against a passive opponent.

Josh McPake on the left wing had the main responsibility as a game breaker for Saints. Of their 23 crosses, 10 were delivered by the former Stirling Albion man. Indeed, all but five came from this flank, which was heavily biased for their attacking play.

At the other end of the field, meanwhile, Saints gave up fewer shots than in any game this season. Ultimately, they were undone when they failed to adequately defend a late free kick, losing the first and second balls in the box as Euan Murray equalised. With just 43.2% of aerial duels won over the course of the game (down from their season average of 48.4%), this was a weakness in their play. Ultimately, it proved to be one that cost them a win.

Raith Rovers vs St Johnstone:

St Johnstone’s struggles in front of goal continued at Stark’s Park as they were held to a scoreless draw by Raith Rovers. It was the third time in six Championship games that Saints were unable to find the net. There was, however, cause for some optimism as they were able to fashion 2.03 xG - their highest figure in seven matches.

In many ways, Saints produced their most dominant performance for some weeks. They had 65.4% of possession and attempted 628 passes, figures far higher than their respective season averages of 61.5% and 507. They were also a little up on shots (16 compared to 15.72) and also on that xG stat (2.03 compared to 1.7).

Raith, though, were happy to play a containing game. The Fife side posted 20.37 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), suggesting that they were extremely passive when it came to pressing their guests and were simply happy to allow them possession.

With the middle of the pitch difficult to break down, Saints attempted to use width to unsettle their opponents. Their figure of 25 crosses (36% completed) was higher than their season average of 19.8 and the biggest number they have posted in this regard since hitting 32 against Ayr in December.

It was from a delivery down the left that Josh Fowler had a chance worth 0.68 xG in the first half that crashed off the bar. Sam Stanton’s follow-up was worth 0.73 xG, but it was bizarrely blocked on the line by his strike partner. This accounted for 1.41 of Saints’ xG, suggesting their overall figure was a little flattering and highlighting how much they otherwise struggled to break their opponents down.

St Johnstone's One to Watch:

Josh McPake: The winger has been devastating for Saints this season, but has not been quite so electric in recent weeks. That has not stopped him from scoring three times in his last six games across all competitions. He is the club’s top scorer with 14 league strikes, posts a team-high 3.6 shots per match (1.3 on target) and also leads the club in key passes per match with 2.2 and successful dribbles per match with 9.3.

Final Thoughts:

St Johnstone may be the league leaders, but they’ve not been nearly as good in recent weeks as they have at their peak. This is most notable offensively as they have scored only five goals in their last seven matches compared to 47 in 26 overall.

In terms of chance creation, they were the most exciting side in the league early in the season, but have become alarmingly sterile in recent matches. Across their last four games, they have managed more than 1 xG only once – and the 2.03 figure that they posted last week against Raith was accounted for by almost 75% by a chance they somehow contrived to miss.

Penalty area presence is becoming an issue. Across their last seven matches, they have averaged 23.3 touches in the opposing penalty area; prior to that, they had posted 27.44 as their average figure. One of the issues could be the way they are entering the box. In the last six games, they have only recorded more than four entries via a run on one occasion. Prior to this run, their average was 6.2 per game. 

Pace of St Johnstone’s play has not been an issue - their match tempo is actually slightly up over this period (16.99 from 16.38), but there is no doubt that they are starting to use long balls a little more (11% up from 10.1%). Having been so good at manipulating chances from relatively close range early in the season (16.7 metres), this figure has risen to 19.2 metres in the last seven games. With the number of shots also dropping, xG has plummeted, and the goals have dried up.

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