Statistical Preview: St Johnstone vs Ayr United

Ayr United go into this game sitting just outside the playoff spots in 5th, only one point behind Arbroath in 4th, and are on a 5-game unbeaten run, with two wins in their last two matches. St. Johnstone, meanwhile, sit top of the table, six points clear of their nearest challengers.

St Johnstone's Form Guide

Using the St Johnstone vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that St. Johnstone are unbeaten in the league this season, with only one draw against Greenock Morton preventing a perfect record. Their only defeat of the campaign came against Motherwell, in the first knockout round of the League Cup.

●               1–2 Win vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

●               1–2 Win vs Airdrieonians (A) – Championship

●               2–1 Win vs Dunfermline Athletic (H) – Championship

●               0–2 Win vs Raith Rovers (A) – Championship

●               1–1 Draw vs Greenock Morton (H) – Championship

St Johnstone's Recent League Matches:

Queen's Park vs St Johnstone:

Despite the scoreline and the shot count, St. Johnstone generated less xG than Queen’s Park, 1.4 compared to 2.2. However, Queen’s Park failed to make the most of their chances, scoring only once, with a low shot accuracy of 33%.

St. Johnstone also limited the time Queen’s Park had on the ball. On average, they allowed just 3.5 passes in each possession before it was lost, compared to the 5.5 passes that Queen’s Park allowed them.

In attack, St. Johnstone created several strong chances of their own. They dominated possession with 64.2% and used it effectively to progress into dangerous areas, completing 54 accurate passes into the final third, compared to 25 for Queen’s Park. This gave them almost double the number of touches in the penalty area, with 27 compared to 14.

Airdrieonians vs St Johnstone:

St. Johnstone dominated nearly all the statistics in this match, with almost four times the number of shots and shots on target than Airdrieonians.

They were especially efficient at creating opportunities from corners, with half of their 10 resulting in a shot. Their crossing threat was also evident, with eight of their 19 crosses finding a target. A key reason for this dominance was their aerial win rate of 52%, compared to just 34% for Airdrie.

This aerial superiority carried over into their passing game. They achieved a long pass accuracy of 72% compared to 55% for Airdrie, and their precision extended into more progressive areas, as they completed 80% of their progressive passes and 74% of passes into the final third. These figures highlight how they were able to create chances both through the air and on the ground.

Despite seeing more of the ball and attempting far fewer challenges, with 56 compared to 93, St. Johnstone still committed slightly more fouls, with 11 against Airdrie’s nine. However, it was Airdrie that picked up six yellow cards, compared to just two for St. Johnstone.

St Johnstone's One to Watch:

Josh McPake: Despite only scoring one goal in 13 appearances last season for St. Johnstone, their left winger has scored seven goals in eight league matches this term, following their relegation to the Championship.

As well as scoring goals, he has also been vital in their build-up play, making 2.4 shot-creating passes per match.

Final Thoughts:

St. Johnstone have averaged almost double the number of shots per match at 17, compared to nine for Ayr’s opponents. These shots will likely come from several avenues, one area to particularly watch is through set pieces, with them averaging 6.3 per match, compared to 3.9 for the league average.

That said, Ayr have restricted opponents to just 2.1 shots from set pieces on average, suggesting they could limit St. Johnstone in this area. Both teams are also strong in the air with aerial duel win rates of 51%, higher than the league average of 46%, pointing to a very even and physical battle.

Compared to Ayr’s previous opponents, St. Johnstone are likely to be far more secure in possession, completing passes at 85% accuracy compared to the 71% average Ayr usually face. One way Ayr could look to disrupt this is by pressing higher up the pitch. St. Johnstone have not often been exposed to this, conceding only nine recoveries per match in their own third, whereas Ayr average 14.

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