Statistical Preview: Ross County vs Ayr United

Ayr United can secure their place in the Championship next season this weekend, with a win over Ross County guaranteeing they will be out of reach of the relegation play-off spot.

The Honest Men are on 39 points and are 6th in the league, and while the season may have been a disappointment, it has not been anywhere near as bad as Ross County’s nightmare campaign, which has them 10th on 28 points.

Ross County's Form Guide

Using the Ross County vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that County are a side in miserable form. They have lost three successive games and are without a win in their last seven. They have actually lost more home matches (nine) than they have on the road (eight), and if that statistic gets worse at Victoria Park on Saturday, they will be staring relegation in the face. 

1-0 Loss vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

4-0 Loss vs Airdrie (H) – Championship

3-1 Loss vs Partick Thistle (A) – Championship

2-2 Draw vs Dunfermline (H) – Championship

1-0 Loss vs St Johnstone (A) – Championship

Ross County's Recent League Matches:

Queen's Park vs Ross County:

Ross County suffered a damaging 1-0 loss away to Queen’s Park, which saw their goal against tally rise to 53 for the season, six worse than any other side in the league. The full time result, meanwhile, was indicative of a team that struggled to create chances, with County mustering just five shots over the course of a match they really needed to win.

Manager Stuart Kettlewell changed his approach for this game. After using a 4-4-2 variant in each of the two previous games, he opted for his favoured 3-5-2 in this game. Where County had hit double figures of shots in the preceding games, they were far more limited offensively in this match and fashioned only 0.43 xG. This was despite having to chase the game after conceding inside 16 minutes.

There was no lack of commitment on the part of the County players. They dominated duel wins in every 15-minute sector of the game, finishing the match with 53% won compared to 39% from their opponents. Equally, their pressing intensity was impressive and consistent throughout, averaging out at 3.8 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) over the course of the game.

Where did it go wrong, then? Accuracy with their final pass was a major issue. Only seven of their 18 passes into the box found a team-mate, while of their 20 crosses, only six were completed. Equally, only one of three through balls were completed. Queen’s Park were more accurate in each of those areas, and while the hosts managed only six shots and one on target, it was sufficient for them to grab the points.

Ross County vs Airdrie

Ross County’s 4-0 defeat against Airdrie at home was one of the worst they have suffered this season, but it was simply a tale of their opponents being far more clinical than they were. Statistically, this was a far more even game than the scoreline suggested, with County managing 1.45 xG compared to 1.43 from their opponents.

Gamestate is everything, though. Airdrie were quickly in a position of power, which meant that they did not need to press for more goals, changing the way that Ross County were forced to approach this match. Lewis Strapp’s fourth minute effort reduced the importance of attacking for the visitors, yet they scored their next shot and were three up by the time 40 minutes had been played, despite having had only six efforts in total. County had had five by that point.

Forced to chase the game, Ross County also had more possession than they typically have, particularly in the second half, when they were dealing with that three-goal deficit. They controlled 62% of the ball after the break, though they average just 47% over the course of the season.

The Staggies also tried to control more of the game. Their long ball share dropped from 20% to 11% after the break, allowing passing accuracy to rise from an alarming 67% to 75%. Equally, their pressing intensity rose with passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) dropping from 13.1 to 9.1.

All of this came too late, though. Airdrie’s lead proved insurmountable, and while County did create 0.93 xG in the second half, the visitors were never unsettled sufficiently to have to change their approach.

Ross County's One to Watch:

Jay Henderson: Former Ayr midfielder Jay Henderson has been one of Ross County’s brighter performers in recent weeks, offering a rare creative outlet for the Dingwall side. This has been reflected in a SofaScore rating of 7.04. He is County’s joint-top assist maker with three, while his four goals put him joint-2nd top scorer. With 1.1 key passes per game, his creativity has never been more important.

Final Thoughts:

Ross County are a team really labouring. Kettlewell has been in charge for 14 league matches, and the numbers make bleak reading for the Dingwall club: four wins, three draws and seven defeats. Most alarmingly, three of those wins came in his first four matches in charge.

The Staggies have since lost their way in a significant manner. Across their last 10 games, they have been unable to score on eight occasions. What’s most concerning is that the underlying numbers are also very poor. In those games, they have generated over 1 xG on just two occasions – one of those was their clash against Airdrie, in which we have already demonstrated that they were effectively out of the game from an early stage.

Kettlewell’s approach has not been working offensively. His favoured 3-5-2, which he reverted to against Ross County, has been particularly bad in terms of shot generation. When starting with this system, they have had fewer than 10 shots in seven successive matches. County’s average number of shots for this season, meanwhile, is 10.22.

Getting into positions in which they are having to chase games is particularly problematic given the lack of creativity they have shown. Going behind early in each of the last two games has left them on the back foot, while they have trailed at the break in four of their last five league outings.

A solution to their offensive problems needs to be found if they are to dig their way out of trouble.

You can find high-quality Football Predictions and the Best Free Bets at Andy’s Bet Club. You must be 18 or over to use the site, and make sure you gamble responsibly.