Statistical Preview: Ross County vs Ayr United

Ross County have been the surprise package of the Championship this season – but not in a positive manner. The Highlands were one of the favourites for the title in the summer but sit 8th on 11 points.

Ayr United, meanwhile are 5th on 18 and can deal the Staggies’ play-off aspirations another sizeable blow if they can get a win in Dingwall.

Ross County's Form Guide

Using the Ross County vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Staggies are showing some signs of turning things around at last. With Tony Docherty now at the helm, they have won each of their last two home matches, but defeats on the road to Partick Thistle and Arbroath show there is still some way to go.

3-0 Loss v Arbroath (A) – Championship

3-2 Win v Dunfermline (H) – Championship

1-0 Loss v Partick Thistle (A) – Championship

0-0 Draw v St Johnstone (A) – Championship

2-0 Win v Raith Rovers (H) – Championship

Ross County's Recent League Matches:

Arbroath vs Ross County:

After an improved period of form, losing 3-0 at Arbroath was a major setback for Ross County, and one that they did not necessarily deserve over the balance of a game, that saw them generate 1.16 xG compared to the 1.4 of their opponets. Certainly, the final score was not flattering for them.

County had more of the ball, but this was in part of their own making. They had seen only 32% of possession in the first 15 minutes, but forced to chase they game, they finished the match on 57% - well above their season average of 47%. Indeed, they even got as high as 70% of the ball for the first 15-minute period of the second half.

Scoring opportunities were relatively few and far between, with the bulk of their xG generated after Arbroath had added a second goal early in the second half. One of the issues they had was getting shots away from dangerous areas. Their average shot distance was 22.7m, which was the highest of any Championship game they have played this season and indicates that they struggled to get close to goal.

Arbroath’s pressing certainly caused them trouble. It was during County’s peak periods of possession at the start of the second half that the Red Lichties had their highest attacks per minute in the game (0.67), and this coincided with a distinct rise in the intensity of the defence from the part-timers, who went from 11.1 PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action), which measures pressing intensity,  in the first period to 5.9 in the second.

Ross County vs Dunfermline

Ross County scored twice in the first three minutes of this game from opportunities worth a combined 0.23 xG to shape much of the remainder of the match. It meant that they could play in a conservative fashion, with just under 40% of the possession.

Although Dunfermline were ultimately able to draw level through a couple of low-percentage chances of their own, a dip in the intensity of the visitors’ defending in the second half was punished. Neil Lennon’s side switched to a 5-3-2 at half time but this coincided with their PPDA dropping to as low as 25.0 in a 15-minute window after the break. It was during this time that County got what proved to be the winner.

They managed the closing stages of the game well. County’s pass accuracy in the last 15 minutes rose to 83% (compared to a match average of 68%), and though much of their possession was in non-dangerous areas, they retained their composure under an intense Pars press to send just 10% of their passes long and allow their opponents just 0.18 recoveries per minute in this vital period of the game.

It was notable that the majority of the Staggies’ big chances were created when they attacked through the middle. A staggering 88% of their 2.79 xG was generated from the 38% of attacks that went through the centre of the park.

Ross County's One to Watch:

Ronan Hale: With six of Ross County's 14 league goals, the Northern Irish striker is clearly their most dangerous figure. Indeed, there is an argument that he is the most threatening striker in the Championship right now as he boasts 6.69 xG - more than any other player in the league. He is 2nd for total shots (48) and 5th for shots on target (50%).

Final Thoughts:

Ross County should not be underestimated. Tony Docherty’s side may not be performing as expected in the Championship this season, but results have picked up lately and the statistics suggest that their fortunes will continue to improve.

The Dingwall side, for example, have created the 3rd highest xG figure across the Championship this season with 19.69 – well above the league average of 16.14. No side is underperforming in this regard as much as the Staggies. They are also the league’s 2nd-largest underperformers with regards xG against, with only Airdrie worse off.

When it comes to expected points, County rank 4th in the Championship, which suggests that with a little more efficiency at both ends of the field, they could quick re-establish themselves as a threat at the right end of the table.

Certainly, there needs to be a defensive improvement. They have allowed 168 shots, with only Queen’s Park giving up more. With a PPDA of 9.75 and a challenge intensity (a measure of duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opponent possession) of 6.4, they are proactive defensively but becoming a little more conservative might be something they need to consider given their shots against count.

Ayr’s defence, meanwhile, will have to be vigilant to the space in behind. County like to be direct and try to release Hale beyond the backline. They have completed 34 through passes compared to a league average of 27.4. Preventing or intercepting these, or playing with a disciplined offside trap, will be crucial to stopping the visitors’ threat.

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