Statistical Preview: Raith Rovers vs Ayr United

Ayr United travel to Raith Rovers on Saturday as they attempt to resurrect their fading play-off hopes.

After eight without a win, the Honest Men are 5th in the Championship on 35 points. Raith are in 7th and have 33 points, meaning they will leapfrog the Somerset Park outfit with a win.

Raith Rovers' Form Guide

Using the Raith Rovers vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see how much more dangerous the Kirkcaldy side are at home compared to their travels. They have scored 25 times at home, second only to St Johnstone in this regard. On the road, they have netted just six goals, which is the poorest record in the league by far. As such, six of their eight league wins this season have come at Stark’s Park.

2-0 Loss vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

3-1 Win vs Airdrie (H) – Championship

3-0 Loss vs Dunfermline (A) – Championship

2-0 Loss vs Ross County (A) – Championship

1-1 Draw vs Airdrie (won 5-3 on penalties) (A) – Challenge Cup

Raith Rovers' Recent League Matches:

Raith Rovers vs Partick Thistle

Raith Rovers succumbed 2-0 against Partick Thistle in midweek, but had reason for optimism after a performance that saw them spend much of the game against the 2nd-placed side firmly on the front foot. They boasted 59.9% of the ball and generated 1.58 xG, more than their opponents’ 1.22, so they could count themselves unfortunate to leave empty-handed.

The teams went blow for blow in a tight first half, but the match was defined by the only big chance Partick created. A slick passing move down the Raith right resulted in a low cross converted by Ben McPherson, whose tap-in was worth 0.42 xG.

The goal changed the course of the game. After an opening period that saw possession more-or-less evenly shared – Raith posted 52% - the second period became a lot more about Raith. After the break, they hoarded 68% of possession and became a good deal more aggressive. They won 55% of duels after the break and stepped up their pressing, reflected by their passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) figure dropping to 5.4 from 14.8, while their recoveries per minute climbed to 0.3, having been 0.13 in the first half.

If 50% of Raith’s attacks originated down their right side, their biggest danger came from the left, where 61% of their xG was created. Dylan Easton was a major reason for this, as he mustered five shots alone. Accuracy was an issue with their final efforts, though. Only three of their 12 shots hit the target, with this 25% figure below their season average of 32.6%.

Raith Rovers vs Airdrie

Raith Rovers came from behind to beat Airdrie 3-1 at Stark’s Park a week ago, and they were good value for their win, generating 2.5 xG compared to 0.91 from their opponents.

Over the course of the match, the home side mustered 20 shots, which is near double their 10.32 average for the season. What is particularly notable about Raith’s shooting in that game was not just the volume, but the proximity to goal. They had 18 efforts from inside the box, with an average shot distance of 16.68.

Raith monopolised the game’s chances from around the hour mark, just as they fell behind. They took advantage of some woeful marking from their opponents to score two goals from corners.

But just because Raith were getting chances, it does not mean they were obviously in control of the match. Indeed, over the course of the last 30 minutes, they posted only 43% of the ball, well below the 62% they had managed in the scoreless first half.

What they did do to make themselves more dangerous was become more aggressive defensively. They pushed their average formation line as high as 57 metres between minutes 60-75 while also winning 64% of duels during this decisive period of the game. Thereafter, they dropped off again in the closing stages, happy to manage the advantage they had won thanks to an impressive burst.

Raith Rovers' One to Watch:

Dylan Easton: Left winger Easton remains the heartbeat of Raith Rovers’ side. He has a club-leading eight goals and is joint top of their assist chart with three. It should be noted that his scoring tally is inflated by four penalties – a practise that he has a perfect record with in the league this term. The fact that he leads Raith in shots per match (2.0) and key passes per match (1.5), underlines his importance. 

Final Thoughts:

Raith are going through a very difficult period currently, with their attack, in particular, struggling to get going. Since their last match against Ayr on 31 January, they have played six league games and have failed to score in five of them. But that’s only part of the story; their 20 shots against Airdrie last week account for more than the sum total of their previous four matches (18).

These have not even been high-quality efforts. They have produced an xG tally of above 0.5 in an individual game twice in their last half dozen. Raith will draw optimism, though, from the fact that those games are the last two they have played. Strip out that match against Airdrie, and they have scored no goals from 3.03 xG, suggesting that the Kirkcaldy side are suffering from poor finishing.

Across the last six games, Raith have had 50.6% possession —a little above their 50% average for the season - but translating this into dangerous situations has proven difficult. They have averaged just 16.17 touches in the opposing box, a figure skewed dramatically upwards thanks to 59 in the previous two games. In the previous four matches, they averaged just 9.5.

Explaining why this is happening is tricky. There’s been no tactical overhaul from Dougie Imrie, with a 4-2-3-1 shape still very much the preferred system, while the defensive intensity remains intact, even slightly surpassing their season average of 10.28 passes allowed per defensive action in four of the six games they have played since last meeting Ayr.

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