Statistical Preview: Raith Rovers vs Ayr United

Going into this match, Ayr sit three points behind Raith Rovers in the table with an equal goal difference, meaning a win would move them above Raith for the first time this season. Ayr will also be looking for payback for their only loss in the league this season, which came in the second game of the campaign against the Rovers.

Raith Rovers' Form Guide

Using the Raith Rovers vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Raith Rovers have had mixed results in their last five matches, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses.

●               2–0 Loss vs Ross County (A) – Championship

●               3–0 Win vs Arbroath (H) – Championship

●               0–0 Draw vs Airdrieonians (A) – Championship

●               0–2 Loss vs St. Johnstone (H) – Championship

●               0–1 Win vs Greenock Morton (A) – Championship

Raith Rovers' Recent League Matches:

Ross County vs Raith Rovers:

This match was Ross County’s first win of the season and, although the scoreline was convincing, the underlying stats showed a closer contest.

Raith had more shots with 16, but one fewer on target. They generated 1.4xG, but failed to convert any of their chances, highlighting one of their main issues in this match, which was creating several good opportunities but struggling with finishing. Their shot accuracy of 25% compared to Ross County’s 38% reinforced this.

Raith created their chances in several ways, particularly from set pieces, where half of their shots came from. Five of their eight set-piece shots came from corners, giving them a strong conversion rate, with 71% of corners leading to a shot.

Defensively, the Rovers were strong on the ground, winning 70% of their duels. However, they struggled in other defensive areas, recording fewer interceptions, clearances, and aerial duels won than their opponents.

Raith Rovers vs Arbroath:

In their home match against Arbroath, Raith massively overperformed their 1.4xG by scoring three goals. This clinical finishing was reflected by their four shots on target from 12 total attempts.

As in their match against St. Johnstone, half of their shots came from set pieces. They were slightly less effective from corners, though, with only two shots generated from seven taken.

Raith also created chances through open play with sharp passing, completing 72% of passes into the final third and 77% of progressive passes. This accuracy allowed them to move the ball efficiently into attacking areas and sustain pressure.

They again recorded fewer interceptions and clearances than their opponents and won only 53% of their duels. Despite this, they limited Arbroath to just four shots, helped by their pressing game and ability to win possession high up the pitch, recording 11 recoveries in the attacking third and 41 in the middle third.

Raith Rovers' One to Watch:

Dylan Easton: Raith Rovers' top scorer this season with four goals in eight games, with no other player scoring more than one. He averages 2.6 shots per match, with 1.1 on target, giving him an impressive 19% conversion rate.

Although two of his goals have come from penalties, Easton remains a key creative presence, taking many of the team’s set pieces and registering an assist from one in the win over Arbroath.

Final Thoughts:

Raith are likely to create more shots than Ayr have been used to facing this season, averaging 12 per match compared to nine for Ayr’s opponents.

Many of these are expected to come from set pieces, particularly corners, with Raith averaging two shots per match from them compared to the 0.8 Ayr usually concede. Ayr, however, are well equipped to deal with this threat thanks to their strong aerial record, winning 50% of aerial duels compared to 43% for Raith.

Ayr may also find themselves under less pressure when passing, as Raith’s opponents typically record a higher pass accuracy (77%) than Ayr’s current average of 74%. This is likely due to Raith’s lower interception rate, averaging 39 per match compared to the 48 Ayr usually face.

A key part of Ayr’s play is their high shooting accuracy of 38%, driven by their short average shot distance of 16.8 metres. However, this could be tested against Raith, who have been effective at forcing opponents to shoot from further out, allowing an average distance of 18.9 metres.

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