Statistical Preview: Queen's Park vs Ayr United

Ayr United face Queen’s Park for the second time this week after losing to the Hampden side 2-1 on Tuesday.

It was Ayr’s sixth successive game without a win across all competitions and leaves Scott Brown’s side on 34 points in 5th place. They are now locked together with the Spiders, but above their weekend hosts on goal difference.

Queen's Park Form Guide

Using the Queen's Park vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the recent form of the hosts is not at all representative of their season as a whole. The Spiders have gone on a remarkable run of five wins in their last seven league games. Before that, they had won just three times in 21 attempts. With only four home losses in 14, they will be tough to beat.

2-1 Win vs Ayr United (A) – Championship

1-0 Win vs Airdrie (H) – Championship

1-0 Loss vs Dunfermline (A) – Championship

1-1 Draw vs St Johnstone (H) – Championship

3-2 Win vs Morton (H) – Championship

Queen's Park Recent League Matches:

Ayr United vs Queen's Park

Queen’s Park won at Somerset Park in midweek with a performance that was more about quality than quantity. Sean Crighton’s side might only have had six shots over the course of the game – their 2nd-lowest figure since the beginning of February – but they generated 1.25 xG compared to Ayr’s 0.71 from 12 efforts.

QP’s goals were worth 1.11 xG - the overwhelming majority of the figure they created. It was notable that they were both scored in very similar fashion. Play was moved out to the left wing, from which a low cross was delivered into the box with a striker on hand to tap in from close range.

Despite both goals originating from the left, the Glasgow club primarily attacked down the opposite wing. Right back Carlo Pignatiello held a high average position just inside the Ayr half, and that resulted in 14 raids down his channel. These were largely impotent, with just 4% of Queen’s xG coming from this area.

Ayr, though, struggled to create good quality scoring chances. While the overall possession figure showing that the Honest Men had 54% of the ball, this is heavily skewed by the figures as they chased the game in the final 30 minutes. Prior to the opening goal, QP had the marginal edge.

After going ahead, the Hampden side dropped deeper. Their average formation line fell from 55.0 metres in the first half to just 44.3m in the second, though their passes allowed per defensive action fell only marginally to 9.2 after being 8.0 in the first half. This approach limited Ayr to just three shots after the opening goal had been scored.

Queen's Park vs Airdrie

Queen’s Park were not at their best as they overcame Airdrie 1-0 at home last weekend. Indeed, Michael Ruth’s nicely constructed goal on the 30-minute mark was one of just two shots on target they mustered over the course of the game as they generated 0.93 xG compared to their opponents’ 1.56.

Ruth’s goal was worth 0.54 of QP’s total xG figure, and it’s notable that after that moment, they had only two further efforts, instead coming under pressure from their opponents. Queen’s managed the backs-to-the-wall challenge well, allowing their opponents just five attempts in a second half they controlled. While Callum Ferrie made two outstandings saves during the game, they also rode their luck as Euan Henderson hit the bar.

In possession, play was typically funnelled initially down the right through Carlo Pignatiello, who linked with deep-lying midfielder Louis Longridge and right winger Aidan Connelly. Despite this, Queen’s were actually far more effective when they attacked down the left, which is where 94% of their xG came from - including the goal.

Despite retaining a consistent intensity to their defending throughout this game, their formation line dropped in the second half. Having sat at 54.1m in the first period, it fell to 47.4 in the second. They were forced back by Airdrie, who played fewer long balls and retained far more possession, bossing 63% of the ball in the second half after QP had 54% in the first.

Queen’s ultimately managed the pressure well, with a series of deep crosses from their right dealt with impressively late on.

Queen's Park's One to Watch:

Michael Ruth: The departure of Josh Fowler to St Johnstone in January seemed to be a major blow, but Ruth has stepped up after recovering from six months out injured. He has started each of the last two games - his first since August - and scored in both of them.

Final Thoughts:

Queen’s Park are not a side to be underestimated, as Ayr found out in midweek. They have won four of their last six matches, bouncing back impressively after being hammered 8-0 by Rangers in the Scottish Cup.

One of the most notable changes that QP have made over this period is a different approach to their defensive work. They have become far more proactive out of possession than they have been previously this season. In four of their last five games, they have posted a PPDA of 8.81 or lower compared to a season average of 12.63. This indicates that they have adopted a more intense defensive structure.

Certainly, there’s not been a particularly notable uptick in their offensive numbers over this period. Their xG over the course of the last six matches is 1.41, which is better than their season average of 1.21, while they have mustered an average of 8.5 shots per game. Again, this is an improvement on their norm of 7.82, but it’s hardly blowing it out of the water.

By contrast, they have allowed an average of 10 shots against over their last half dozen league outings. This is a significant drop compared to their season average of 13.14. This drop is reflected in their average xGA falling to 1.26 compared to its usual 1.43.

Queen’s Park have made improvements at both ends of the field, but it’s been their willingness to step up defensively that has really been driving their recent form.

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