Statistical Preview: Queen's Park vs Ayr United

Ayr travel to Lesser Hampden on Saturday, aiming to bounce back from their midweek disappointment at Partick Thistle when they tackle Queen’s Park. The Spiders sit 8th, one spot above the relegation playoff spot with nine points, while the Honest Men are 4th, eight points better off than their hosts.

Queen's Park Form Guide

Using the Queen's Park vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Spiders are a side in a rut. Sean Crighton’s men have failed to win any of their last five matches, and though they drew last time out against Airdrie, the Diamonds are adrift at the foot of the standings.

●      0-0 Draw vs Airdrie (H) – Championship

●      4-1 Loss vs Arbroath (A) – Championship

●      0-0 Draw vs Dunfermline (A) – Championship

●      1-0 Loss vs Partick Thistle (A) – Championship

●      2-1 Loss vs St Johnstone (H) – Championship

Queen's Park Recent League Matches:

Queen's Park vs Airdrie

At home against the bottom side in the league, Queen’s Park were unable to take command of the game. They had only 43.9% of the ball, below their season average when playing at home of 45.5%, while their total of seven shots is the worst they have mustered at Lesser Hampden in a Championship fixture all season.

By the time the full-time whistle went, it was Airdrie who had fashioned the better opportunities and generated the higher xG, coming out on top 1.02-0.9. The Diamonds created a high likelihood of scoring, but failed to convert their opportunities.

Queen’s did get the ball into scoring areas, they were just poor at making the most of them. They had 43 attacks in total, but converted just 14% of these into shots. This contrasts to Airdrie’s 42 attacks, which concluded with shots 36% of the time.

Poor passing accuracy did not aid them. They completed just 73.5% of passes, below their season average of 75.2%, and the second-worst figure they have produced at home in this regard, behind only the 72.5% against St Johnstone in September.

Arbroath vs Queen's Park

The trip to Gayfield was one to forget for Queen’s Park. Although Arbroath only edged the xG count 1.47-1.37, the final score painted a strong picture of the hosts' control. Queen’s failed to produce a single effort in the first half, and by the time the second period kicked off, they were 3-0 down and already out of the game.

Although Queen’s Park are poor when it comes to winning duels, they were particularly outfought in Angus. A 39.6% duel success rate ranks as the poorest they have produced all season.

An inability to do anything meaningful in possession was alarming. Despite 56% of the ball in the first half, they were averaging just 0.29 attacks per minute, compared to 0.49 from their more incisive hosts.

The 3-4-3 formation was exposed down the wings, as Arbroath persistently found space in behind the wing-backs and produced 13 crosses in the first half alone, before a tweak in the setup after the break at least partially alleviated this issue.

When Queen’s did get forward, there was a clear bias of attacking down the left side of the pitch. Of their 27 attacks, 14 came down that flank, yet conversely, their goal came after a raid through the middle – something they tried just eight times.

Queen's Park's One to Watch:

Callum Ferrie: The performances of goalkeeper Callum Ferrie have been one source of joy for Queen’s Park, in what has been a difficult period. The shot-stopper has kept two clean sheets in his last three matches, and while he will want to forget the 4-1 loss in Arbroath a fortnight ago, that is the case for the whole of the Queen’s Park squad.

Former Dundee player Ferrie has made 29 saves this season, stopping 67.4% of shots on target.

Final Thoughts:

Queen’s Park have a squad that has been riddled with injury problems of late, which goes some way to explaining their poor recent performances. In general this season, they have been able to remain competitive in matches, and while they have only one win to their credit, their four losses all came against the top three.

Crighton’s side are likely to be more dangerous this week, too. Runaway top scorer Josh Fowler, scorer of five of their eight Championship goals, is likely to be back in the squad after injury. With 3.73xG across nine appearances, he stands fourth in the whole league in this regard. After netting a penalty against Ayr the last time the sides met, Scott Brown will know all about his threat.

The Spiders are a side that like to try to make the difference on an individual basis, with several league-leading dribblers in their squad: Seb Drodz (35), Tyrece McDonnell (32) and Connelly (25) all rank in the top 11 in the league in this statistic. Ayr’s defenders will need to be primed for a busy afternoon of one-on-one work.

One area where Ayr have a clear advantage in this match is in the air. Queen’s Park have won only 39.2% of their aerial duels this season – the worst record in the league – compared to the Honest Men, who have won 49.1% of these situations, ranking third behind Partick and Dunfermline.

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