Statistical Preview: Partick vs Ayr United

Ayr United travel to face Partick Thistle at Firhill on Saturday, aiming to cement themselves in the Championship play-off positions.

The Honest Men face a tough challenge. Partick are 2nd on 40 points, some 11 points better off than Scott Brown’s men, who are 4th.

Partick Thistle’s Form Guide

Using the Partick Thistle vs Ayr United Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the while the Jags have won only three of their last nine matches overall, they are undefeated at home in the league this season. Indeed, with eight wins from 11 games, they post the best home record in the Championship.

3-1 Win vs Montrose (H) – Scottish Cup

3-3 Draw (lost 4-2 on penalties) vs Inverness (H) – Challenge Cup

2-0 Loss vs Ross County (A) – Championship

3-2 Win vs Morton (H) – Championship

2-2 Draw vs Queen’s Park (A) - Championship

Partick Thistle’s Recent League Matches: 

Ross County vs Partick Thistle:

Partick Thistle’s 2-0 loss against Ross County was something of a Highlands hard luck story, but, in reality, a slow start to the game was heavily punished in Dingwall. County scored twice through former Ayr player Jay Henderson in the first 11 minutes of the game, leaving the Jags to play catchup. While Partick finished the game with 1.81 xG compared to 0.8 from their hosts, the gamestate meant that they were chasing literally from the first minute. This meant that they spent almost the duration of the match on the front foot. Indeed, they only managed their first shot after 25 minutes, by which time they were already two down, but thereafter dominated.

Faced with a deficit, the Jags sought to dictate the terms of the match. They did this by employing a short passing game that focused on accuracy. Their possession share of 65.7% was the highest they have achieved in a game since 1st November. Just 7.95% of their passes were long compared to a season average of 13.9%, while their average pass length of 18.7 was a season low.

Faced with a packed County defence, they struggled to make inroads. Despite their domination, they were kept an arm’s length. The average shot distance was 18.22m, which compares to a season average of 17.9m.

There was a strong bias to playing down their right, with 34 of their 62 attacks coming from Logan Chalmer’s wing. Oisin Smyth, now back at St Mirren after his loan spell ended, was the main midfield conduit, attempting 94 passes - no one else across the midfield or attack managed more than 54.

Partick Thistle vs Morton:

Partick Thistle staged a dramatic comeback to beat Morton 3-2, having trailed 2-0 at the break to the Greenock side. Once again, the Jags made a sleepy start to the match, with 3.21 of their 3.67 xG generated after the break.

The turnaround was achieved by taking more chances. Instead of leaning on the sheer weight of possession, Partick were willing to sacrifice some control of the ball for a more direct approach. Their long pass share rose from 8% in the first half to 13% in the second, while their possession figure dropped from 64% to 62%.

The result of this, when it came to attacks per minute, was that nothing much changed. Partick had offered 0.7 in the first half, but this only rose to 0.71 in the second. What was crucial was that the quality of the attack improved.

Partick adopted a balanced attacking approach; 25 attacks went down each wing, while a further 18 came through the middle. It was in the centre that they got their joy, with 67% of their xG produced here.

Out of possession, Partick also stepped up their pace. In the key measure of defensive intensity, passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), they dropped from 10.1 in the first half (broadly in line with their season average of 9.55) to just 4.9 in the second. While Morton’s PPDA also dropped from 23.0 to 9.1, this likely came as a result of Partick provoking them into action due to their more direct approach.

 
Partick Thistle’s One to Watch:

Logan Chalmers: The right winger has been Partick's outstanding player this season, scoring six goals and producing five more assists. He leads the Jags in terms of shots per match (2.0) and ranks 2nd in terms of key passes per game (1.9). Though he was sent off in the Scottish Cup last weekend, he will eligible to play here as the dismissal was for two bookings.

 
Final Thoughts:

Partick have shown some unexpected signs of weakness in recent weeks, largely because of a defence that is not keeping clean sheets. Across their last eight games, they have just one shutout, while they have conceded exactly two goals in four of their last five league matches. It’s the type of run that cannot be allowed to continue.

There has been an element of bad luck to this. Leaving aside the 2-2 draw with Queen’s Park, when Partick played 49 minutes down to 10 men, they have allowed only 2.7 xGA in the other four games and yet have conceded six games. This could be said to be a reversion to the mean; over the course of the season, Partick have 23.71 xGA, entirely in line with the 24 goals they have conceded.

In possession, Partick are a side that likes to have the ball. Remarkably, they are one of just two teams in the whole league that have had more than 50% of the ball this season, posting 56.4% control of games.

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