Statistical Preview: Morton vs Ayr United

It’s a second successive away match for Ayr United as they travel to Greenock to face Morton next up, fresh from victory over Dunfermline last weekend.

The win propelled Scott Brown’s side to 27 points, keeping them 4th in the standings. The Ton, who are without a permanent manager, are 7th on 21 points.

Greenock Morton's Form Guide

Using the Greenock Morton vs Ayr United Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Greenock side have struggled since losing manager Dougie Imrie to Raith Rovers in November. The Ton have won only one of their five subsequent games in 90 minutes, two of which have been against lower-league opponents.

5-0 Loss vs St Johnstone (A) – Championship

1-0 Loss vs Airdrie (H) – Championship

2-2 Draw vs Stirling Albion (A) (lost 5-4 on pens) – Challenge Cup

2-1 Win vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

2-2 Draw vs Peterhead (A) (won 5-4 on pens) – Scottish Cup

Greenock Morton's Recent Matches: 

St Johnstone vs Morton

Morton are certainly not the first team to get blown away by the scoring power of St Johnstone in the Championship this season, though they can consider themselves slightly unfortunate with the nature of their 5-0 loss at McDiarmid Park. Although they failed to create a shot on target for the first time this season in the league and had only four shots (compared to a season average of 8.89), their opponents were extremely efficient, netting their five goals from just 1.35 xG.

A major tactical tweak was made at the start of the game as they moved to a back three for the first time this season. It was abandoned after 24 minutes as Josh McPake was allowed far too much room for the hosts, scoring one and creating another. Ultimately, they went 4-3-3 in the second half in what was a damage limitation exercise.

As an attacking force, Morton were almost non-existent. They had just 13 positional attacks compared to a season average of 24, while their only shot from inside the box was blocked. Typically, they are strong at getting crosses into the box, with 17 on average per game. Against Saints, they managed only nine.

While the Tons’ defensive numbers were largely in line with what they produce as standard this season, they were a more cautious side in and out of possession. This is reflected in the intensity of their defending, which is measured by passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA). Overall this season, the Tons’ figure lies at 11.5, but against Saints it was 14.36.

Similarly, they had more passes per possession than they typically manage (3.74 against 3.37), but their long pass share was 11.49% compared to a season average of 17.19%. For the first 30 minutes of the game, it trended along their usual terms but dipped thereafter to just 6% between 30 and 60 minutes, highlighting how conservative they became.

Morton vs Airdrie

Morton’s home match against Airdrie was a frustrating one for the hosts. They generated 1.33 xG but still failed to score against an opponent that netted once from just 0.98 xG. It was a game the Ton felt they should have won.

Posting 49.1% of possession, close to their season average of 49.6%, Morton did more with their share of the ball than usual. They produced 14 shots against a season average of 8.89. While these were lower-quality chances than they typically produce – 0.095 xG per shot compared to their average of 0.124 xG per shot overall – they had the better of the match.

Morton were able to move themselves into dangerous areas far better than they have typically managed this season. From open play, they tied their season-best of 39 positional attacks. They were also better than average at turning these into shots. While 21.2% is the norm this season, they managed 23.1% in this match.

Getting the ball into wide areas and delivering crosses was crucial to the plan. They managed 26 deliveries into the box against a season average of 17. It was the second successive home match they have hit this figure.

Meanwhile, they were more pro-active than usual out of possession, with a PPDA of 9.75, although this was skewed by the final half hour, which saw them drop as low as 3.7 between 61-75 minutes and then to 6.0 in the closing quarter of an hour as they chased the game.

Greenock Morton’s One to Watch:

Michael Garrity: Left winger Michael Garrity has been in bright form lately, and with his ability to make a difference one-on-one, he is someone who will need to be closely watched, particularly as there appears an increased appetite to get the balls into the wide areas. With 8.08 dribbles attempted per 90, he sits 2nd in the league behind Josh McPake, while he has completed 61.1% of those – the 6th best figure in the league.

Final Thoughts:

Managerless Morton are still trying to find their way and have been reluctant to overhaul the work that Dougie Imrie did. Given that Billy Davies was his first team coach, it is no surprise that the style remains largely the same, although there have been indications of some tweaks to the style.

An increase in crosses has been apparent in recent games, though this was not evident against St Johnstone as they were unable to get enough of a foothold in the match to allow them to do it. The fact that they have managed 26 in each of their last two home games suggests this is a tactic they will seek to employ regularly, although whether they choose to do it against Ayr, who have 47.8% success in aerial duels this season (4th in the Championship), remains to be seen.

There has also been a drop in long balls attempted under Davies. In the last three games, the maximum number Morton have tried is 53. In their 10 previous league matches under Imrie, they were above that figure nine times. The exception was against Ayr in the Honest Men’s 2-1 October triumph.

Despite this, Morton do not appear to be controlling games to any greater extent. Their ball possession figures in recent matches (38.6%, 49.1% and 50.7%) is largely in line with what they have produced on average (49.6%).

Similarly, there has been little change in terms of their defensive pressing. Although their season average sits at 11.51 PPDA, this is impacted by the choice of sitting deep and soaking up pressure against the likes of St Johnstone, Partick and Raith. Otherwise, Morton are more typically around the 8.5 mark, which is a standard they have maintained under Davies.

So while Morton may not have a permanent manager in place, don’t expect to see a big change of approach compared to the team that played Ayr in October.

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