Statistical Preview: Dunfermline vs Ayr United

Ayr United travel to Fife to face Dunfermline at East End Park in their latest Championship clash on Saturday.

It promises to be a vital encounter in the race for the play-offs, with the Honest Men sitting 4th on 24 points, one spot and one mark better off than their opponents.

Dunfermline's Form Guide

Using the Dunfermline vs Ayr United Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that inconsistency has plagued the Pars all season. They have only won back-to-back Championship matches on one occasion but similarly have only lost successive games once. Meanwhile, they have managed only three wins from nine home games (3D 3L).

4-3 Loss vs Queen of the South (A) – Challenge Cup

1-1 Draw vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

2-1 Loss vs Arbroath (H) – Championship

2-1 Win vs Queen of the South (H) – Scottish Cup

1-0 Loss vs Partick Thistle (A) – Championship

Dunfermline's Recent League Matches:

Queen's Park vs Dunfermline

Dunfermline travelled to Queen’s Park last week in a match they were expected to win, but could only draw. Indeed, they were fortunate to escape with a point, with Charlie Gilmour’s late equaliser bailing them out in a match they struggled to create chances in.

The Pars finished the game with 1.41 xG created from 12 shots. Both of those figures were marginally above their season averages of 1.19 and 10.33, respectively. While this would have been relatively satisfying, at the other end, they gave their opponents 2.09 xG. With those coming from just six shots, Dunfermline were allowing 0.35 xG per shot, which is a huge figure, only usually seen if there has been a penalty kick.

Interestingly, all six of the shots Dunfermline faced came between the 33rd and 57th minute of that game, indicating that they were generally solid defensively but went mentally walkabout around half time.

Going forward, they created little until they were forced to chase the game. Possession was split evenly in the first half, but the Pars bossed 65% of the ball after the break, and notably raised the intensity of their play both in and out of possession. Their attacks per minute hit a high of 0.7 in the closing stages, having been 0.33 in the first half, while their passes per defensive action, a crucial measure of pressing, intensified from 5.7 in the first half to 4.4 in the second, indicating a more ferocious approach.

In order to do this effectively, they switched from a 4-4-2 system to a 4-1-4-1, which effectively contained four attacking midfielders, putting them firmly on the front foot.

Dunfermline vs Arbroath

Dunfermline were left disappointed as they were defeated 2-1 at home by Arbroath in their last outing at East End Park. They had led 1-0 going into the final quarter of an hour of the match, but a couple of headed goals from Brooklyn Kabongolo gave the visiting side an unexpected victory.

Starting in a 3-4-2-1 formation, Dunfermline’s front three of Chris Kane, Andy Tod and Keith Bray played very close together, but this was an unsuccessful ploy as they mustered a total of only seven shots, including just a single effort from Tod in the first half.

The opening period was dour. Between them, the teams only had three shots with an xG of 0.1 or greater. Dunfermline had 62% of the ball but were not incisive at all with it, as Arbroath were content to contain them. They tried to pepper the visiting box with crosses, but though their goal came about from one of the 17 deliveries they mustered, only three came after Tod’s opener.

After taking the lead, Arbroath became notably more aggressive. Their formation line moved to 64m, having been 48.3m in the first half, showing that they pushed much further up the field. Dunfermline were still trying to be aggressive with their defending as their PPDA rose to 4.2 in the second half, having been 8.1 in the opening 45 minutes, but they were now being swamped.

As an attacking force, the hosts disappeared. With their long pass share rising to 15% in the second half, having been only 12% in the first period, they saw their attacks per minute plummet as low as 0.07 between minutes 60-75. Although it recovered to 0.24 for the closing stages, Arbroath were taking advantage of the space they were being given and saw theirs rise to 0.67. It would ultimately be the proactive guests' reward in the closing stages.

Dunfermline's One to Watch:

Jeremiah Mullen: One of a number of young, exciting players at East End Park, the defender has been earning rave reviews in recent weeks for his displays. With three decisive passes to his credt, including one last week against Queen's Park, he is joint-top of the Pars' assist charts and is one the players to have maintained his form through this rocky period. His strength in the air is his major asset.

Final Thoughts:

Dunfermline have switched between a back four and three regularly this season, typically preferring a three-man system when facing the better teams on paper. This suggests that they will move away from the 4-4-2 they used against Queen’s Park last week and adopt an approach more similar to the one deployed against Arbroath.

Set pieces should be particularly closely policed. In four of their last six matches, they have had at least two shots following corner kicks, with five coming last week from eight corners against Queen’s Park. Ayr should be comparatively well set up to cope with these situations. Scott Brown’s side win 47.9% of aerial duels – the 4th highest figure in the league, albeit behind the Pars’ 49.7%, which is a Championship-leading figure.

Nevertheless, there should certainly be little sense of fear ahead of this trip. Although Dunfermline won the previous match between the clubs 1-0 in October, they did so generating only 0.76 xG. This has been a typical figure for them in recent weeks. In their last seven league outings, they have only once been over one in this category, which is an alarming return. By contrast, in five of these matches, their xGA has been greater than one.

Dunfermline simply aren’t playing well at the moment, and their return of eight points in their last eight games is flattering to say the least. Indeed, the discrepancy between xGA (26.74) and goals conceded (18) of 8.74 is simply enormous. Goalkeeper Billy Terrell has been outstanding in preventing 3.13 goals, but this accounts for less than half the gap, suggesting the Pars have been seriously riding their luck with their opponents’ poor finishing.

At the other end of the park, Andy Tod has been dramatically overperforming in front of goal, scoring nine times from just 5.75 xG..

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