Statistical Preview: Dundee United vs Ayr United

Ayr United travel to Dundee United on Saturday for a Scottish Cup fourth round clash against Premiership opponents.

Jim Goodwin’s side sit 7th in the top-flight on 25 points while the Honest Men are 4th in the Championship with 29 points.

Dundee United's Form Guide

Using the Dundee United vs Ayr United Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Tangerines have struggled for form lately, winning just two of their last 13 matches. In particular, they have found the going difficult on their travels, with just two wins from 11 road trips in the league.

4-0 Loss vs Celtic (A) – Premiership

1-0 Loss vs Dundee (H) – Premiership

3-1 Win vs Livingston (A) – Premiership

1-1 Draw vs Aberdeen (A) – Premiership

1-1 Draw vs Hibs (H) – Premiership

Dundee United's Recent Matches: 

Celtic vs Dundee United

Dundee United were comprehensively beaten by Celtic last weekend, putting up little fight against a team that seemed intent on proving a point following the sacking of Wilfried Nancy. Nevertheless, this was a disappointing showing from Goodwin’s side.

The Terrors were rearranged into a 5-3-2 formation in an attempt to better cope with the home side. It is the most defensive lineup they have put together all season, and it struggled to limit Celtic, who created 3.12 xG compared to United’s 0.34.

One of the most eye-opening figures from the game was just how limited Goodwin’s side were in possession. They completed only 89 passes over the course of the game, with centre backs Ross Graham and Krisztian Keresztes accounting for 50 of those.

Their failure to retain possession was typified by Will Ferry. Although he won a team-high four tackles and six duels, the left wing back was only able to complete 12 of 22 passes (55%).

Consequently, they were unable to carry any offensive threat and mustered just nine touches in the Celtic box. What few attacks they did muster was weighted towards going down the right. Of their three efforts, two were blocked and the other missed the target.

The fact that goalkeeper Dave Richards finished the match with the 3rd most touches (43) of any Dundee United player sums up what was a difficult afternoon for the visitors.

Dundee United vs Dundee

The year kicked off in disappointing style for Dundee United as they suffered a 1-0 derby loss to Dundee at Tannadice. In what was a thrilling game that produced 4.51 xG, the hosts were ultimately undone by a goal from Ashley Hay shortly before half time.

Goodwin’s men were poor in the first period, struggling without defensive keystone Ross Graham, who was on the bench. Playing in their familiar 3-4-3 formation, they gave up four big chances in the first period alone, with their opponents completely dominating the game physically. The Dark Blues won 35 of 52 duels in the opening period, including 78% of the 27 aerial battles.

In particular, United were weak at defending crosses: Dundee completed four of seven, scoring their goal from a cross. Indeed, the visitors had 0.12 xG per shot compared to the hosts’ 0.07, indicating the better areas they were able to get into.

The second half was a dramatic contrast. Dundee retained the upper hand in the physical contest, but their control was less pronounced, particularly in terms of aerial duels, which became 50-50. United’s possession rose to 61%, having sat at 49% in the first period.

Despite this, United were kept at arm’s length. They created 0.91 xG from 14 shots, although Luca Stephenson was denied by an excellent save with 20 minutes remaining as his effort, worth 0.85 xGOT, was kept out.

Dundee United’s One to Watch:

Will Ferry: The 25-year-old has been one of Dundee United’s most consistent performers for months and has distinguished himself in recent matches against Dundee and Livingston by hitting ratings of over 8.0 on SofaScore. Noted for his tigerish defensive work, Ferry is 2nd in tackles per match (2.1) and leads them in interceptions per match (1.8) – he also leads Dundee United in big chances created (4) and key passes per match (1.8) this season

Final Thoughts:

With just two wins in their last 13 matches, Ayr should not approach their clash against Dundee United with too much trepidation. Scott Brown’s men should even be optimistic that they can make inroads into the home side’s attack.

No team in the Premiership has faced more shots this season than the Tangerines, with 362, an average of 16.45 per game. Unsurprisingly, then, they have failed to keep a single clean sheet over the course of their last six matches, while they have only one in their last 17.

United, meanwhile, rank 2nd in the Premiership when it comes to receiving yellow cards and sit 3rd in fouls with 290.

The 3-4-3 formation that Jim Goodwin typically prefers is, therefore, one that is likely to give up scoring opportunities. Although they have failed to score in their last couple, potentially breeding some doubt among the strikers, they have a high shot count, with 4.55 shots on target per 90, ranking 5th among Premiership teams.

There is, however, some doubt as to how Dundee United might approach this match. They have not played a team from outside the top-flight this season, and indeed their last such match was their League Cup clash against Buckie Thistle back in July 2024. Three days earlier, they had beaten Ayr 2-1 at home in the same competition, and Brown will be hopeful that his side can be as competitive this time around as they were in that encounter.

You can find high-quality football previews, stats, and betting tips at Andy’s Bet Club. Please note, you must be 18 or over to use the site, and we strongly encourage responsible gambling.