Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs St Johnstone

Ayr United welcome Championship winners St. Johnstone to Somerset Park on Saturday in what will be their final outing of the season.

The Honest Men go into the game 7th on 39 points, while Saints have been the runaway winners of the title, picking up 74 points.

St Johnstone Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs St Johnstone Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, there has been no sign of relenting from the Perth side since they claimed the title, celebrating with a 2-0 win over Raith Rovers at home last weekend. They have kept 3 successive clean sheets while they have won 10 of 17 away games.

2-0 Win vs Raith Rovers (H) – Championship

2-0 Win vs Dunfermline (A) – Championship

4-0 Win vs Airdrie (H) – Championship

4-2 Win vs Arbroath (A) – Championship

1-1 Draw vs Queen’s Park (A) – Scottish Cup

St Johnstone's Recent League Matches:

St Johnstone vs Raith Rovers

St. Johnstone delivered an accomplished performance to overcome Raith Rovers 2-0 at home. They generated an enormous 3.4xG, which was their second-highest figure of the season, coming from 16 shots.

Although Saints have been a ball-dominant side this season, that was not evident in the early stages of the Raith clash as their opponents had 55% possession in the first period. The key was that Raith were not allowed to progress the ball easily. Saints held a very high defensive line in the first half, with an average formation line of 55.7m, and the Kirkcaldy side were limited to 0.35 attacks per minute compared to 0.57 from the possession-starved hosts.

Saints had 10 first-half shots – including 6 big chances – with Jamie Gullan scoring 2. By contrast, Raith had only 2 efforts for all their control of the ball, both coming in the 15th minute.

What followed in the second half was a controlled display of possession from the home side. They were not proactive with their 60% of the ball, as evidenced by their attacks per minute dropping to 0.51. This resulted in only 5 shots. But they were able to use this control as a defensive tactic, limiting Raith to 2 low-quality efforts.

While key man Josh McPake had a quiet hour, Kai Fotheringham and Gullan were able to profit from the attention of the home side being on the left winger. Both had 4 shots and completed 83% of their passes in impressive displays.

Dunfermline vs St Johnstone

St. Johnstone claimed the Championship title with their hard-fought 2-0 win over Dunfermline at East End Park, with second-half goals from Reece McAlear and Ruari Paton securing the points.

Victory was hard fought, though. The Perth side generated just 0.94xG, which is their second-lowest figure in their last 11 league matches. Defensively, they were formidable. Dunfermline mustered only 4 shots, not one of which hit the target. This was despite the home side having more than 50% of the ball. Saints stifled them.

St. Johnstone were happy for Dunfermline to retain possession for significant periods. The visitors averaged 3.71 passes per possession, which is significantly about the 2.97 that Saints have typically allowed. This meant the visitors were not as proactive or intense defensively as they often are, with 8.7 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) compared to a season-average of 7.72. It was notable that when they became more intense in the second half, their goals arrived.

With the ball, Saints were purposeful. Their match tempo of 17.3 shows that they passed the ball more quickly than usual and were more direct (14.1% long passes compared to a season average of 11.3%), but this cost them accuracy.

Although they scored twice, the trade-off did not seem to be a particularly good one. Two goals might have arrived, but they generated only 1 big chance. It was, however, enough.

St Johnstone's One To Watch:

Jamie Gullan: With star player Josh McPake off to Hearts in the summer and nothing to play for here, look for Gullan to make an impact in this game. He has 17 goals and assists over the course of the season, just 2 behind McPake. Gullan has been a constant danger, too. He averages 2.4 shots per match, plus 0.9 on target and 1.6 key passes.

Final Thoughts:

St. Johnstone showed last weekend against Raith that they are not cruising into the holiday period yet. There has, however, been a notable shift in the way they have approached games.

Over the course of the season, Saints boast 60% possession in the Championship, yet in 8 of their last 10 matches, they have not reached this figure. Indeed, in 2 of their last 4 games, they have not even had 50% of the ball, and they were heading that way against Raith last weekend before using possession as a controlling tactic in the second half to hold a 2-0 lead.

They are passing the ball more quickly – each of their last 5 games have seen Saints exceed their 16.69 average match tempo for the season – and are doing so more regularly in a direct manner, with 4 of these 5 games generating a higher long pass % than their norm for the campaign.

Typically, this has not come at the cost in terms of goals. In their last 5 games, they have netted 13 times, generating 12.18xG in the process and, therefore, suggesting that such a rate is more-or-less sustainable over a protracted period of time. Indeed, this approach has allowed them to get closer to goal, with an average shot distance of 16.06m in the last 5 matches, in contrast to 17.19 over the campaign.

Ayr are likely to face a Saints side with a different look to them than earlier in the season. They are not allowing teams to defend against them in a low bloc so easily and are seeking to transition more quickly and take more risks with the ball. It promises to be an interesting test for John Rankin’s side before they sign off for the summer.

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