Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs St Johnstone

Fresh off a Challenge Cup win over Peterhead, Ayr United continue a testing run of Championship fixtures with a home match against league leaders St Johnstone on Friday.

The Perth Saints, whose midweek match with Hearts B was postponed, sit on 35 points, 11 clear of the Honest Men, who lie 4th in the table.

St Johnstone Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs St Johnstone Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the visiting side have stuttered a little in the league after a flying start. It is particularly notable that they have conceded nine times in eight road trips, with both their defeats coming away from McDiarmid Park.

0-0 Draw vs Raith Rovers (H) – Championship

2-1 Loss vs Cove Rangers (H) - Scottish Cup

2-1 Loss vs Partick Thistle (A) – Championship

4-3 Win vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

2-2 Draw vs Dunfermline (A) – Championship

St Johnstone's Recent League Matches:

St Johnstone vs Raith Rovers

Although St Johnstone were held to a scoreless draw with Raith Rovers last weekend, they could count themselves unfortunate that they did not enjoy a better result. After all, it was a match they dominated, generating 1.36 xG and allowing just 0.3 on their own goal.

Saints were actually below their season average in terms of the quality of chances they created. In the Championship this term, they typically hit 1.78 and have 16 shots, 34.6% of which find the target. The Kirkcaldy side allowed them 19, but the fact that this came to a below-average xG shows that Simo Valakari’s side were unable to generate the type of chance quality they are used to.

Underlining this is the fact that the Perth side’s average shot distance was 20.3 metres – which is the biggest figure they have recorded in Championship action this season. This indicates that Raith defended their box well and frustrated their opponents into long range efforts.

Similarly, St Johnstone’s high possession figure would tend to tally with this. Although they completed 598 passes, 111 of those were backwards – well above their season average of 79.65. It was the second match in succession they have hit three figures in this regard, having not been above 95 previously this term.

On the flip side, they did not come under significant pressure at all. Raith managed only one shot on target while the xGA they face (0.3) was the second lowest figure they have reduced their opponents to in more than three months, suggesting that at least their defensive plan was effective.

Partick Thistle vs St Johnstone

St Johnstone lost away to Partick Thistle in a crucial top-of-the-table clash in Glasgow, in a defeat that came about largely because of their own wastefulness. Dominating the shot count, but that was not enough for them to get the win. So what went wrong?

On the face of it, not too much. Saints posted above average figures in terms of shots (18 against a norm of 16), possession (68.12% against 61.76%) and even duels, winning 49.27% compared to their usual 47.6%.

Unfortunately for Valakari, the gamestate was already against them. Conceding after six minutes meant they were making the running throughout the game. It was a role that Saints took up with relish. Against the second-best team in the league, as many as 11 of the 14 outfield players they used had an average position inside the home team’s half. This reflected how deep and passive Partick were.

Consequently, St Johnstone’s intensity was outrageously high. They posted an intensity of 6.8 over the course of the game based on passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) compared to a season average of 7.88, which is the lowest in the league. This notably dipped in the second half to 12.2, having been as high as 5.2 in the first period.

Where Saints stumbled was their finishing. Aside from Josh McPake’s goal 19 minutes from the end, they were wasteful. Only five of their efforts hit the target, which combined for 0.73 post-shot xG, which measures the quality of the shot itself. By contrast, Partick, who only reached the box eight times, mustered 1.09 in the same metric – a far healthier figure.

Much of their attacking play came from McPake’s left flank, with 56.7% of their attacks coming from that wing, which generated 51% of their xG. But they were also weak defensively in this area. Partick sent 48.3% of their attacks down there, with 39% of their xG generated from here.

St Johnstone's One To Watch:

Josh McPake: So much of what St Johnstone do going forward is channelled through McPake, who leads them with 10 goals for the season. With 3.9 shots per game and 1.3 shots on target per match, he is a direct goal threat, but he also leads the team in 2.2 key passes per match and a staggering 9.4 successful dribbles.

Final Thoughts:

While recent results have not gone the way of St Johnstone, it’s worth bearing in mind that they have had a greater xG than their opponents in nine successive league matches, indicating that one major factor holding them back is their efficiency in front of goal. That’s certainly been the tale in each of their last couple of games, when they have scored only one goal from 2.71 xG.

Over the course of the season, Saints have actually overperformed marginally when it’s come to finding the net. They have scored 33 goals from 30.2 xG, so a period like this did seem on the cards. Nevertheless, there was no guarantee that results would be affected given that their xG figure is 4.68 higher than any other team in the league, underlining the high volume of chances they create.

Much of this is achieved through 1-on-1 dribbling. McPake leads the league with 183 dribbles, with 67% of those being successful. He’s also had a league-leading 62 shots.

But there’s more to Saints than the winger. Liam Smith has become the league’s most accurate crosser from right back, finding a team-mate with 56.7% of his deliveries. In turn, that has helped Adama Sidibe, who has more headed efforts than any other player with 15.

In short, this is a team that can hurt you in many different ways, even if they have not necessarily been able to do so in recent weeks.

With a focus on attack, a team good enough to get at them can pose trouble. With 0.125 xGA per shot, they give up good chances. For context, this ranks 9th in the Championship and indicates that while they do not give up many opportunities, the ones they do allow tend to be of high quality.

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