Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Ross County

Ayr United are back in league action on Saturday after the drama of their Challenge Cup victory on penalties against St Johnstone on Tuesday.

Scott Brown’s side will be hoping that a win acts as a springboard in their stalling league campaign, which sees them 4th on 32 points. Meanwhile, Ross County are dead last in 10th on 22 points.

Ross County Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Ross County on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Staggies’ form has been erratic but improving in recent weeks. They only have five total wins for the season, but two of those have come in their last four games. Moreover, their only two road victories have come in their last three trips.

1-0 Loss vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

1-0 Win vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

2-1 Loss vs Morton (A) – Championship

1-0 Win vs Airdrie (A) - Championship

1-0 Loss vs Motherwell (A) – Scottish Cup

Ross County's Reecent League Matches:

Ross County vs Queen's Park

Ross County delivered a pretty miserable performance at home to Queen’s Park last weekend. It resulted in a 1-0 defeat, and they can have few complaints about the outcome of the game given that they generated a measly 0.26 xG and mustered just a single shot on target over the course of the match.

Stuart Kettlewell started the match with a 3-4-2-1, but after his side managed just three low-quality efforts in the opening 45 minutes, he altered to a 4-4-2 after an hour, bringing on Uche Ikpeazu, who had scored the winner between the sides a week earlier.

It was only after they moved to having two up front that they carried what little of the threat they managed over the course of the match. This largely came from corners, with two of their four efforts in the closing 30 minutes coming from those situations, underlining their struggles to create clear chances from open play.

County certainly tried different paths to breaking down their visitors. Their attacking balance across the park was very balanced infact, with 14 attacks going down the left, 19 on the right and 15 through the centre.

Over the course of the game, they made an effort to become more possession-dominant. In the second half, they had 60% of the ball compared to 51% in the first period, while their long pass share dropped from 21% to 16%.

Although Queen’s Park dropped deeper - their formation line fell from 50.4m in the opening half to 41.5 after the break - the fact that the visitors’ PPDA (passes per defensive action) remained steady until the final 15 minutes suggests that it was County’s change of approach that was the cause rather than a conscious effort to sit deeper.

Still, the hosts were unable to fashion a big chance during the game, with Dylan Smith’s headed effort from a corner worth 0.12 xG with seven minutes left accounting for almost half their xG over the course of a frustrating outing.

Queen's Park vs Ross County

Ross County claimed the spoils at Lesser Hampden when they faced Queen’s Park on 3 February, thanks to a goal from Ikpeazu 11 minutes from the end of the game. It had been a tight match in which there were few big opportunities, but it was edged by the Dingwall club 1.04-0.86 in terms of xG.

Kettlewell set his side up in a 3-4-3 formation that did not change over the course of the game. Indeed, he seemed content with the shape of his team, but not necessarily his attackers, as he made a quadruple change with 25 minutes remaining. It proved decisive as Ikpeazu was one of those he brought on.

Those changes certainly seemed to bring fresh energy to the team. County’s formation line was higher than 56m for the duration of the last 30 minutes, compared to 47m in the first half. Similarly, their attackers per minute climbed from 0.4 in the opening period to above 0.72 in the closing half hour.

Some of the groundwork for this injection had been laid previously. County had taken more ball possession from the start of the second period, with their 46% share in the first half climbing to 64% after the break. There was also a notable push to put QP under more pressure. Passes allowed per defensive action dropped from 16.2 in the first half to 5.1 in the second half, pointing to a concerted effort to trouble their opponents while in possession.

County seemed to time their push perfectly in that clash, and the changes that Kettlewell made underlined this neatly.

Ross County's One to Watch:

Trevor Carson: Ross County’s goalkeeper has been a good deal busier than he might have wished this season, and despite County’s poor performance in the league, the experienced shot-stopper has equipped himself well. He has conceded only three goals across his last six Championship games, keeping four clean sheets in the process.

Final Thoughts:

Ross County have the poorest defensive record in the Championship this season, having conceded 39 goals in their 24 matches. The Dingwall club have tightened up dramatically in recent weeks, during which they have posted four clean sheets in six league games while conceding only three goals.

Stuart Kettlewell, who took charge in early January, has been in charge of this revolution, overseeing their last seven fixtures, including five Championship games. As such, it would be very surprising if there was to be a repeat of the 3-3 draw the sides shared at Somerset Park back in November. At that point, County were on a run of four games in which they conceded 11 goals.

Now they have adopted Kettlewell’s favoured 3-5-2 system. It’s a more pragmatic system, and there’s only limited evidence to suggest that it’s actually working – despite the positive results.

Across their last six fixtures, during which the raw numbers look strong, County have 8.74 xGA or an average of 1.46 xGA per game. Given they have conceded only three goals, this suggests that they are riding their luck. Their season average is 1.47 xGA, showing they are performing at virtually the same level.

County’s defensive shift has also come at an offensive cost, despite the fact that they are now seeing more of the ball than at any other point this season. They have posted more than 50% in four successive league games for the first time in 2025/26 (County had never dominated back-to-back games in this regard previously), but their shot count and xG have notably dropped.

Honing in on Kettlewell’s five games, County have scored five goals, only being shutout once, but have four times created 1.04 xG or under. Their average for the season is 1.36 xG per game. With 49 shots in these fixtures, they average 9.9 per game, which is notably lower than their season average of 11.58.

The Stags have adopted relegation battle mode: it appears they are going to try to grind their way out of trouble. With 12 games to save themselves, each one is vital.

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