Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Ross County

Freshly relegated Ross County have found life back in the Championship difficult, failing to win any of their first five games. With just two draws to their name, they sit bottom of the table heading into the weekend.

Ayr United have also yet to record a league win this season, picking up three draws and a defeat from their opening four matches.

Ross County Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Ross County on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Ross County have lost all of their home matches this season, but have performed better away from home, drawing all of these matches.

Last week’s defeat against Arbroath was their first game under new permanent manager Tony Docherty, who was last in charge of Dundee before being dismissed at the end of last season.

●               1–2 Loss vs Arbroath (H) – Championship

●               2–2 Draw vs Dunfermline Athletic (A) – Championship

●               1–3 Loss vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

●               0–1 Loss vs St. Johnstone (H) – Championship

●               1–1 Draw vs Airdrieonians (A) – Championship

Ross County's Reecent League Matches:

Ross County vs Arbroath

Despite having three more shots than Arbroath, Ross County created 1.9 xG compared to Arbroath’s 2.3, giving them an average of just 0.14 xG per shot. This suggests they were likely a little too quick to take efforts, rather than working better-quality chances.

They also underperformed their chances in front of goal. Their only strike came from the penalty spot, with them failing to score from 1.1 non-penalty xG.

Ross County were very effective in winning the ball back in the middle third, with 45 recoveries to Arbroath’s 27. This is reflected in the low overall pass accuracy that Ross County allowed Arbroath, at 71%.

The detail of those passes shows how Ross County set up defensively. Arbroath were allowed to play backwards and sideways with high accuracy (96% and 89%), but when it came to more dangerous passes, Ross County restricted Arbroath to a lower accuracy, at just 39% for passes into the final third and 59% on progressive passes.

Dunfermline Athletic vs Ross County

In this match, Ross County overperformed their xG, scoring two goals from 0.7 xG, Dunfermline also overperformed, although to a small degree, with their xG of 1.2, also scoring two goals.

Ross County struggled with aerial duels, only winning 41% of them. This was likely one of the reasons Dunfermline focused on putting in a lot of crosses at 28, compared to 13 for Ross County. On the ground, though, County were much stronger, winning 72% of defensive duels.

Discipline was another area where Ross County came out on top. While Dunfermline were aggressive with 16 fouls and three yellow cards, Ross County stayed composed, conceding just nine fouls and avoiding any bookings.

Ross County's One to Watch:

Ronan Hale: Ross County’s striker was the difference-maker in his last match, scoring both goals in the draw against Dunfermline Athletic.

He missed the game against Arbroath while away on international duty with Northern Ireland, but should return this weekend with fresh legs, having only featured on the bench in those fixtures.

Hale is an active presence up front, averaging four shots per game, and a strong dribbler, completing 2.5 successful dribbles per match with an 83% success rate. Additionally, he contributes to creating chances for his teammates, registering 1.3 key passes per match.

Final Thoughts:

Despite sitting at the bottom of the table, Ross County have managed to score a relatively high number of goals, at 1.2 per match, which is higher than Ayr's one.

One way they create these goal-scoring opportunities is through corners, with an average of eight per match compared to the average that Ayr concede of four. However, they convert only 35% of those corners into shots, just below the league average. Ayr could make that figure even lower, given their strong aerial record, winning 57% of duels compared to Ross County’s 43%.

In open play, Ayr can look to disrupt Ross County’s long passing game. They complete 59% of their long passes, noticeably higher than the 40% average Ayr’s opponents usually manage. This difference is likely explained by Ayr’s strength in the air, which they can again use to their advantage.

That same aerial edge could also help Ayr in attack. They currently attempt fewer crosses than most sides, but deliver them with above-average accuracy at 39%. Targeting Ross County’s weakness in the air through crosses could be a key way for Ayr to generate more chances this weekend.

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