Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Raith

After defeat at Partick Thistle last weekend, Ayr United are aiming to bounce back against Raith Rovers in what promises to be an important clash in the play-off race.

Raith lie in 6th in the Championship on 28 points, one place and one point behind the Honest Men. The Fife club have, however, played 23 games to their hosts’ 22.

Raith Rovers Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Raith Rovers Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Raith’s recent form has been encouraging. The Kirkcaldy side, though, have struggled on the road, winning only two of their 11 away league fixtures.

1-1 Draw (won 3-1 on penalties) vs Queen’s Park (A) – Challenge Cup

4-1 Win vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

1-0 Loss vs Aberdeen (A) – Scottish Cup

3-2 Loss vs Arbroath (H) – Championship

1-0 Win vs Queen of the South (H) – Challenge Cup

Raith's Recent League Matches:

Raith Rovers vs Queen's Park

Raith Rovers secured a commanding 4-1 victory over Queen’s Park at Stark’s Park that provided the recently goal-shy side with a boost of confidence in front of the net. The Fife club generated 2.13 xG for their four goals while only giving up 0.31 xGA in a dominant display.

While Raith held more possession than they typically do - they posted 55% of the ball compared to a season average of 49.8% - they were not necessarily a great deal more productive in terms of their shooting. They offered 12 shots, with five finding the target. Typically, they have 10.77 efforts, with 33.3% of them working the keeper, so their tally was in line with their season-long data.

What they did excel at was taking their chances. Raith generated a small number of very good opportunities, fashioning five big chances over the course of the match. They scored four of those, with Jack Hamilton bagging a hat-trick from 1.29 xG.

Remarkably, this was achieved despite just 53 attempted passes into the final third. This was less than their usual figure of 61.45.

One area where Raith outperformed the season average was getting crosses into the box. They produced 24 in total, completing 33.3% of those. On average this season, they have mustered 16.7 with a 30.3% completion rate. Although the majority of those deliveries came from the right (14), those from the left did more damage, with three goals directly generated from low passes from this area.

Raith vs Arbroath

Raith Rovers suffered defeat in a topsy-turvy game against Arbroath at home. Although it finished 3-2 to the Red Lichties, there was only a total xG of 2.54, 1.01 of which was attributed to the hosts.

Aside from a big early chance for Jack Hamilton, the first half was bossed by the visiting side, who generated 1.31 xG during this period and led 2-0 by half time. By contrast, Raith started slowly and produced just four shots (none on target) by the break. This was despite bossing possession, with Raith commanding 64.5% of the ball in the first half, a figure that remained largely unmoved by full time, when they posted 65.1%.

What changed in the second half? Perhaps the biggest difference in Raith’s approach was in the intensity of their defensive work. Their passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) dropped to 5.08, having been as high as 14.4 in the opening period - demonstrating a clear intent to put pressure on the ball. This prompted their shot volume to double, with eight efforts arriving after the break, four of which found the target.

After Arbroath regained the lead, Raith became even more aggressive out of possession and were happy to sacrifice control of the ball by adopting a more direct approach. In the final 15 minutes of the game, 28% of their passes were going long - dramatically more than their season average of 19.16%. It was an unsuccessful tactic as they only had two low-quality shots late on.

Raith's One to Watch:

Jack Hamilton: Fresh from a hat-trick against Queen’s Park last weekend, Hamilton will be a player who needs to be policed closely. He showed fine instincts to get into scoring positions close to goal to bag his treble against QP. With 1.6 shots per match and 0.8 shots on target per match, plus a club-leading six strikes from open play, he is a clear dangerman.

Final Thoughts:

Raith Rovers’ campaign has been undermined by their poor away form, which has seen them win only two of their 11 league matches. It is something they will surely be keen to improve as they travel to Somerset Park against an Ayr side that has only won twice at home.

Chance generation is something they certainly need to improve upon, particularly on the road, where they have netted only five times. When it comes to taking their opportunities, the Kirkcaldy side are doing fine; they have scored 27 times but have generated just 26.13 xG. They have scored only one goal fewer than Ayr this season, but have been expected to score 6.24 fewer times.

Raith are simply getting the ball into dangerous areas less than their rivals. They have only 14.38 touches in the opposition box per match this term compared to 17.77 from Ayr and 25.27 from St Johnstone, who are the standard setters in that regard.

When it comes to passing rate (12.3), progressive passes (75.97 per 90) and progressive runs (10.13 per 90), they are middle of the road and their attacking stats reflect that.

Defensively, there are a few such concerns. Raith win 64.7% of their duels – 2nd in the league only to Arbroath - and employ a moderately intense approach off the ball, with 10.83 PPDA. This is matched with good discipline. They have given up only 10.9 fouls per match - the 3rd-lowest figure in the Championship.

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