Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Queen's Park (Jan)

Ayr United host Queen’s Park in their first match of 2026 at Somerset Park.

The visiting Spiders lie 8th in the Championship after a three-match undefeated run that has carried them to 18 points. Ayr, meanwhile, still sit in the play-off zone in 4th with 28 points.

Queen's Park Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Queen's Park Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Hampden side have lost only one of their last six outings across all competitions. They have, however, just three Championship wins to their credit, albeit two of those have come on the road

2-2 Draw vs Partick Thistle - Championship

3-0 Win vs Airdrie (A) – Championship

2-1 Win vs Clyde (H) – Challenge Cup

1-1 Draw vs Dunfermline (H) – Championship

2-1 Loss vs Morton (A) – Championship

Queen's Park's Recent League Matches:

Queen's Park vs Partick Thistle

Queen’s Park showed their qualities to secure a 2-2 draw against Partick Thistle, coming from 2-0 down to secure a point, albeit against a team that went down to 10 men just before the break. Even before Oisin Smith’s dismissal, the Spiders had generated 1.92 xG and would go on to produce a season-high 3.2 xG.

There was a notable tweak in their formation. Sean Crighton changed to a slightly more attack-minded 4-3-1-2 system, which is something the Hampden side have not used extensively this season. It saw Grant Savoury play a supporting role to Josh Fowler and Seb Drozd in attack and resulted in QP offering a season-high 17 shots.

If it was largely successful offensively, it did leave them exposed at the back to some extent. While Partick’s 1.57 xG was below the average Queen’s Park have conceded in the league this season (1.66 per game), they did muster an impressive 17 shots, despite playing around 50 minutes a man down.

One notable feature of Queen’s Park’s play was the volume of crosses they delivered. In total, 27 balls went into the Partick box from wide areas, which is not a typical feature of their game. It was the first time all season they have been above 20 in this regard, and they average 11.68. However, this was a response to Partick going down to 10 and playing narrow defensively; before the red card, they had only two crosses.

This was not the only stat that changed acutely when Partick’s Smith saw red. Possession shifted dramatically. Queen’s had left possession to the visitors in the first half, but in the second had 85% of the ball in the 15 minutes after the break, 78% of it in the middle third of the period and 63% in the closing stages.

Airdrie vs Queen's Park

Queen’s Park were impressive in their 3-0 win over Airdrie, striking a trio of goals from 2.79 xG, which was a season-high figure until the Partick Thistle clash. This was achieved from just 11 shots, which underlines the quality of opportunity that Crighton’s side were able to create.

They were able to get close to Airdrie’s goal to get efforts off. The visitors’ average shot distance was just 14.89m, which compares to a season average of 17.15m. One of the secrets to this was converting a high percentage of their attacks into shooting chances. Although they only had 25 positional attacks, in line with their norm of 23.47, they were able to convert 28% of those into shots compared to 19% overall this season.

Overwhelmingly, Queen’s Park attacked down the left. Of their 25 attacks, 16 of those (64%) came from this flank, while they produced 40% of their total xG (0.83). Just three of their attacks went down the middle of the pitch. Equally, they were weak defensively down this avenue, with 61% of Airdrie’s xG originating from this wing, despite just 37% of their attacks coming in this sector.

In the end, it appears that Queen’s Park were happy to settle for a point in this match. While their PPDA – a key measure of defensive intensity in which a low figure represents a more intense approach – of 15.45 was a little higher than their season average (13.15), this dropped to 89 in the closing stages after they had drawn level at 2-2.

Queen's Park's One to Watch:

Josh Fowler: With 10 goals to his credit, Fowler is the joint-2nd leading marksman in the league, which is a remarkable achievement with a team that have struggled for much of the season. This has come from just 6.81 xG, showing his finishing has been very sharp indeed. Further highlighting this is the fact that he hits a Championship-high 56.7% of his shots on target. With Queen’s Park looking increasingly capable going forward, he will need to be closely watched. 

Final Thoughts:

Queen’s Park may be struggling in the league, but they have looked increasingly dangerous in recent weeks, and with Josh Fowler in form in front of goal they are a team that deserve to be respected.

Although QP have mustered an average of 1.05 goals and 1.22 xG per game in the Championship this season, in recent weeks they have been considerably more threatening. In four of their last five league matches, they have produced a minimum xG of 2.09. Prior to that, they had been over 2 xG on just one occasion in the league this season. In return, they scored 10 goals in those five matches.

Quality rather than volume of shots has been key during this period. What has been notable is that Queen’s Park have managed to produce shots from a very close proximity to goal. During this period, their average shot distance has been below 15m on four occasions.

A couple of other stats worth noting from the recent displays of the Glasgow club. Firstly, their long pass % has been below their season average of 19.46% in each of their last four matches, while in four of their last five games, their average passes per possession have been above their norm. This tends to indicate that they have tweaked their style to be a little less direct.

Out of possession, meanwhile, there is evidence of a more proactive approach. With a season-long PPDA of 13.15, there has been a tendency in recent weeks to see a more intense defensive approach. Again, in four of their last five games, they have been below this figure.

Is this a purple patch for Queen’s Park or the beginning of a longer-term revival? While that’s unclear for the moment, it is evident that Ayr will have to defend their box well as they seek to limit QP’s big chances. The Honest Men gave up just one shot when the sides last met, and that type of tight-fisted attitude would be welcome here.

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