Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Partick Thistle

If Ayr are going to get back into the Championship title race, this will be a defining week as they face Partick Thistle and St Johnstone in the space of six days.

First up, as the Honest Men return to league duty after a Scottish Cup win over Turriff United, it’s the Jags at Somerset Park. Partick are level at the top of the league with St Johnstone on 34 points, but 2nd on goal difference. They are one place and 11 points better off than Scott Brown’s side.

Partick Thistle Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Partick Thistle Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Jags have been flying in the league. The Glasgow side have won three of their last four, but away from home, there are signs of weakness. Partick have only three wins from seven away games, and none of their last three.

2-0 Win vs Forfar Athletic (A) – Scottish Cup

1-0 Win vs Dunfermline (H) – Championship

2-1 Win vs St Johnstone (H) – Championship

1-1 Draw vs Airdrie (A) – Championship

5-0 Win vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

Partick Thistle's Recent League Matches:

Partick Thistle vs Dunfermline

Partick did enough to snatch three points against Dunfermline in their last league outing, with Aidan Fitzpatrick’s goal midway through the first half settling a game of few chances. The home side had the greater volume of opportunities, but despite 13 shots, managed just 0.91 xG. This was still in excess of their opponents’ 0.85 xG.

It was notable just how far advanced the home side were able to get their wingers in comparison to centre-forward Tony Watt. Right winger Liam Chalmers was their furthest forward player based on average possession, with central midfielders Ben Stanway and Tsoanelo Letsosa operating close to the former Celtic man. This allowed the wingers to play wider.

Following Fitzpatrick’s goal, it was notable how the game flipped. Partick bossed possession for the first 30 minutes, but thereafter, the Pars took command. In the second half, the visitors had 61% of the ball. After the break, the Jags became far more direct. Just 12% of their passes in the first half had been long balls, but in the second half, this grew to 23%, causing their accuracy to plummet from 77% to 65% in the process.

Was this a response to Dunfermline pushing their defensive line higher by trying to take advantage of the spaces in behind? It would seem not. Partick were simply very passive late in the game. In the last 15 minutes, for example, their attacks per minute dropped to 0.05, having averaged 0.51 in the first half.

With this being a midweek match coming hot on the heels of a clash against the league leaders, it would be understandable if they were tiring at the end of this game.

Partick Thistle vs St Johnstone

Partick have typically played a 4-1-4-1 system in recent weeks, but they moved away from that strategy in their home clash with league leaders St Johnstone and were rewarded with a 2-1 victory. Their success, though, came about in part due to their opponents’ wastefulness. The Jags fashioned only 0.73 xG and mustered a comparatively low eight shots compared to a season average of 1.3 and 10.44, respectively.

The pattern of the game played into Partick’s hands and dictated the flow of the match. Daniel O’Reilly’s early goal allowed them to be more passive than usual, with their pressing intensity (PPDA) just 16.7 compared to a season average of 9.46.

Much of the game was backs to wall as Saints tended to win possession back quickly. Partick only had 23 spells of possession that lasted longer than 10 seconds compared to 54 from their opponents. Indeed, they only reached the visitors’ box on eight occasions via open play possession, and were robbed of the ball 55% of the time before they even reached the Perth side’s half as a result of the pressure that was coming from the visitors. The gamestate meant this was not a problem, as they were always in front.

Much of the action in this match came down Partick’s right side: 14 of the hosts’ 30 attacks came via that flank, while Saints overwhelmingly targeted this area of the field for their offensives, with 56.7% of their raids coming in this area, generating 51% of their xG.

Oisin Smith was a key steadying figure in the midfield. The on-loan Motherwell star completed a team-high 62% of his actions as well as 30 passes, easing the pressure on his defence in the process.

Partick Thistle's One To Watch:

Logan Chalmers: A former loan player at Ayr, midfielder Chalmers has become Partick’s most dangerous player this season, supplying six goals and three assists. Indeed, he scored in October the last time these sides met. With 2.2 shots per match, he is trying his luck more frequently than any other Jags.

Final Thoughts:

Partick’s results have been positive, but their form has not necessarily been as strong. Across their last three matches, they have failed to record an xG higher than one in any individual game, while their opponents have outmatched them in this regard in two of those fixtures. As such, a return of seven points seems more than they deserve.

However, a common thread in each of the last couple of home matches that we’ve studied is that the Jags have been able to get themselves a comparatively early lead. With the advantage, they have not been drawn out and have been able to adopt a passive stance, seeing both of these games out with comparative comfort.

What about concerns over Partick’s away from? With three wins from seven, they look unspectacular on the road but have generated 1.71 xG on their travels on average compared to 1.51 at home. This has not been reflected in the number of goals they have scored. At Firhill, they have netted 2.0 goals on average, but away they’re at 1.29 per game.

Defensively, they are giving up far better chances when they play away. On the road, their xGA is 1.39 (roughly in line with 1.43 goals conceded), but at home it dips to 0.79 (compared to 0.75 goals conceded). Statistically, there’s no glaring reason for this. Partick have slightly more possession when they play on the road than at home (56.7-54.2), while their pressing intensity is almost identical (9.65-9.25). Similarly, the average shot distance of their opponents is similar (19.27m-19.3m), but the Firhill side are allowing more shots on their own goal (12.43-9.25).

In a battle between the two Championship clubs that give up the fewest xG per shot – Partick stand at 0.1, and Ayr are 0.106 – quality opportunities are likely to be at a premium. The Jags have been excellent in recent matches after getting out in front – Ayr cannot afford to let them do that here.

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