Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Partick Thistle

John Rankin’s first match in charge of Ayr United will be a home encounter against Partick Thistle on Saturday.

It promises to be a tough assignment. The Jags are 2nd in the Championship and are still hanging onto their title hopes on 59 points - three back from leaders St Johnstone with five games to go. Ayr are 8th on 35 points and need a miraculous finish to make the play-offs.

Partick Thistle Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Partick Thistle Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Glasgow side have lost just four matches all season. In more positive news for the Honest Men, all of those have come on their travels, with the Firhill side having conceded 21 times in 15 road trips compared to 11 in 16 at home.

3-1 Win vs Ross County (H) – Championship

2-0 Win vs Raith Rovers (A) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs St Johnstone (H) – Championship

2-1 Win vs Morton (A) – Championship

2-1 Loss vs St Mirren (A) – Scottish Cup

Partick Thistle's Recent League Matches:

Partick Thistle vs Ross County

Partick Thistle recovered from conceding an early goal to overcome Ross County 3-1 at home. After conceding just two minutes into the game, they responded three times before the break to take the match out of reach of their struggling opponents.

It was an efficient performance in which they neutralised their opponents well rather than peaking themselves to any particular capacity. Partick only managed a total of six shots over the course of the match, which is half the 12.23 they have averaged in Championship play this season. Remarkably, not a single one of those came in the second half of the match.

What Partick did well against their opponents was shut the game down impressively. When County were chasing the game in the second period, they allowed only a single shot, while they also only conceded a single corner kick as the visitors were left frustrated.

Robbie Crawford was key to turning the game around as he supplied a goal and an assist. After his second decisive pass of the campaign for Alex Samuel to score against his former club, the ex-Ayr midfielder struck his first league goal of the campaign to put Partick into the lead, confirming his growing influence after an injury-hit campaign.

Raith Rovers vs Partick Thistle

Partick Thistle registered just their fourth Championship away win of the season as they overcame Raith Rovers 2-0 away from home, yet it was a slog against the Kirkcaldy club. They had only 40% of possession across the course of the game, while they generated 1.22 xG compared to their opponents’ 1.58, suggesting the final score flattered them.

The teams went blow for blow in a tight first half, but the match was defined by the only big chance Partick created. A slick passing move down the Jags’ left flank was converted by Ben McPherson, whose tap-in was worth 0.4 2xG - more than the sum total of the two teams in the opening 45.

The goal changed the course of the game. After an opening period that saw possession more or less evenly shared - Partick posted 48% of the ball - the second period became a lot more about Raith. After the break, the home side hoarded 68% of possession as the Glasgow side faded under pressure from their hosts. Partick won 45% of duels after the break and toiled up Raith’s more aggressive, reflected by the hosts’ passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) figure dropping to 5.4 from 14.8.

The visitors benefited from the wastefulness of their hosts. Only three of 12 Raith efforts found the target. On the flip side, the Jags were far more efficient. Although they had only eight shots over the course of the game, six hit the target, with Aidan Fitzpatrick’s stoppage-time strike, after a solo surge through the heart of the home defence, wrapping up the points.

Partick Thistle's One To Watch:

Aidan Fitzpatrick: Left winger Fitzpatrick has been a go-to figure offensively for Partick in recent weeks, with a goal and two assists in his last couple of outings. Though the 25-year-old winger is not especially prolific, his contributions do tend to come in short, sharp bursts.

Final Thoughts:

Reading this Partick Thistle team can be difficult. Mark Wilson has regularly tinkered with his side’s formation in recent weeks. They have jumped from playing a back three to a back four on a consistent basis, while even during matches, they have been fearless about changing shape. It promises to be a difficult tactical baptism for Rankin in the Ayr dugout as a result.

Partick are not at their best currently, though. While they have chalked up an impressive undefeated run that stretches back to January 9th in the Championship, which includes a 2-1 win over Ayr, they have struggled in terms of chance creation. In their last six matches, they have failed to generate more than 1.37 xG. Given their season average is 1.61, it shows how much they have been toiling offensively.

The shot count has been down dramatically, while the efforts they have enjoyed have often been from a longer distance. In three of the last four games for which data is available, their average shot distance exceeds 21 metres. They had only been above 21m three times all season before this sequence.

It’s been notable that the Jags have faced greater pressure on the ball in those matches. In four of their last five, Partick have been allowed fewer than 10 passes per defensive action (PPDA), indicating that the intensity of the defending they have faced has stepped up. The average for them this season is 13.34.

Their match tempo has also dropped compared to their average of 16.36. In the five successive games before their trip to Raith, they had been around or below this figure, suggesting they are not using the ball quite as quickly as they once did and are perhaps lacking a little confidence in their ball movement.

At the other end of the park, Partick had conceded only one goal in four games prior to their clash with Ross County. Given they allowed 4.22 xG across those fixtures, it suggests they have been riding their luck a little and can be got at.

You can find high-quality Football Predictions and the Best Free Bets at Andy’s Bet Club. You must be 18 or over to use the site, and make sure you gamble responsibly.