Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Greenock Morton

Ayr United host Greenock Morton on Saturday at Somerset Park, seeking to kickstart their playoff challenge once again after 7 without a win. The Honest Men have fallen to 5th in the standings on 35 points compared to their opponents, who are 8th on 30 points. Scott Brown’s side also have a game in hand.

Greenock Morton's Form Guide

Using the Ayr United v Morton Match Stats on Andy's Bet Club, we can see how much the Ton have struggled on their travels. Despite scoring more goals away from home (16 compared to 13 in 1 extra game at Cappielow), they have picked up only 2 victories on the road, the most recent of which was a 3-0 success at Ross County back on 15 November.

2-1 Loss vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

2-0 Loss vs St Johnstone (H) – Championship

3-1 Loss vs Airdrie (A) – Championship

3-2 Loss vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Raith Rovers (H) – Championship

Greenock Morton's Recent League Matches:

Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle:

Morton turned in a good display against Partick Thistle last weekend in difficult circumstances. As well as losing Owen Moffat and Michael Garrity to injuries in the second half of the game, they were hampered by a controversial red card for Reuben Lopata-White shortly before the break, which had a hand in changing the course of the match.

The home side had started with much promise. Beyond Cammy MacPherson’s opening goal, they had generated 0.95xG compared to their opponents’ 0.26. They were happy to play defensively and break quickly, registering 0.8 attacks per minute in the first quarter of an hour, compared to 0.2 from their rivals. Even by the break, they still held an edge 0.5 to 0.39 in this regard.

The red card was a watershed moment, though. They moved into a 4-4-1 formation, and even though they remained a threat on the counterattack, this was much more sporadic. Morton adopted a far more defensive approach as they sought to cling on. Their pressing dropped dramatically as their passes allowed per defensive action rose to 34.0 in the second half, having been 13.4 in the first, while their average formation line dropped 10 metres to 44.4m after the break.

It was a solid rearguard effort. Partick only managed 0.35xG and failed to generate a big chance, yet Alex Samuel popped up in the box in the final minute to score.

Morton vs St Johnstone:

League leaders St Johnstone proved too good for Morton at Cappielow, but the Greenock side gave a solid account of themselves and could consider themselves a little unfortunate to lose 2-0. Over the course of the match, they generated 0.76xG but mustered nine shots, which is in line with their season average of 9.54.

For Morton, this match was largely about survival – and their plan nearly worked as it was a couple of late goals that undid them. Their tally of 21 positional attacks equals the lowest they have clocked in a home game all season. Over the course of the match, they managed just 0.3 attacks per minute compared to their opponents’ 0.59.

In trying to repel the Perth Saints, they were forced deep. Their average formation line was 42.5m over the game as a whole, but in the closing 15 minutes of either half, this dropped further - to 38m in the first half and 34m in the second.

Building attacks, meanwhile, was a major issue as St Johnstone were so active without the ball. The Saints allowed only five passes per defensive action (PPDA), which is the most intense defending Morton have faced at home all season. As such, the hosts played long passes 19.71% of the time. Although they tried to balance their attacks across the width of the pitch, they were unable to find much joy, even if Moffat was active again down the right.

Morton, for their part, did not stand off significantly. They allowed 10.5 PPDA, below their season average of 11.4, but this was not enough to trouble their guests, who created chances at a steady pace throughout the game, but only broke through late on.

Greenock Morton's One to Watch:

Cammy MacPherson: After bright recent displays against Partick and Airdrie, former St Johnstone midfielder MacPherson is one to watch in the Morton side – particularly if Moffat is out injured. The 27-year-old has scored two goals in his last five Championship outings and with 0.9 key passes per match, leads the Greenock side in this category.

Final Thoughts:

With four losses in succession, it might be easy to write off Morton ahead of this encounter, but those defeats are explainable. Against Partick, they were in control until going down to 10, they were overcome by a St Johnstone team that is a class apart in the league, versus Airdrie they had two players sent-off, while they went down against a Queen’s Park team in excellent form.

What to expect of Morton in this match, then? They have looked most comfortable out of possession and playing on the counterattack, with Moffat down the right being their chief outlet. It would be a heavy blow if both he and Garrity were to miss this match as they are key game breakers and it would change the dynamic of the squad if they were to sit out. Moffat has a team-leading six assists to his credit, while Garrity is second-leading scorer on four goals.

Ayr will want to force Morton to go long. While Ian Murray’s side only do so 54.94 times per match – the second lowest in the Championship behind St Johnstone – they are highly unsuccessful when they do. With 42.5% of such passes completed, they are miles below their Championship rivals in this regard. The average is a 49.9% completion rate, with Airdrie next worst at 46.3.

Scott Brown may wish to replicate the high intensity pressing game practiced by St Johnstone a fortnight ago, although that’s not really been Ayr’s DNA this season. With 10.7 PPDA, the Honest Men are right on average in this regard but may wish to consider stepping up their energy off the ball to unsettle their guests here.

These have typically been tough, tight matches – there has never been more than one goal between the sides in the previous eight league meetings under Brown’s watch – and Morton will try to make it that way again.

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