Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Greenock Morton

After three wins in the last four games, Ayr United sit 4th in the table. Greenock Morton are two places lower, and a win this weekend would bring them level on points with Ayr.

Greenock Morton's Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Greenock Morton Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Greenock Morton have lost only one league game this season, but have also won just once, drawing their other eight matches.

●               1–1 Draw vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

●               1–2 Win vs Airdrieonians (A) – Championship

●               1–1 Draw vs Ross County (H) – Championship

●               1–1 Draw vs Arbroath (A) – Championship

●               0–0 Draw vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

Greenock Morton's Recent League Matches:

Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle:

In their match against Partick Thistle, one of the only even statistics was the scoreline. Partick Thistle dominated in nearly all other areas, especially in shooting, recording almost triple the total shots and triple the number of shots on target. This helped them produce a much higher xG of 3.2, compared to just 0.4 for Morton.

Morton conceded several opportunities from set pieces, with 10 of Partick Thistle’s 25 shots coming from such situations. They were particularly vulnerable from corners, allowing eight shots from 11 of them.

In possession, Morton focused on long balls, attempting 70 long passes, a much higher amount than Partick Thistle’s 66 when accounting for the possession difference. However, they struggled to make these passes count, completing only 34%.

Airdrieonians vs Greenock Morton:

In this match, Greenock Morton recorded their first and so far only league win of the season, and it was just the second match in which they have scored more than one goal. Despite this, they did not create a large number of chances, with nine shots to Airdrie’s eight.

These nine shots were generally of high quality, as shown by an average of 0.14xG per shot and a low average shooting distance of 16.3 metres. Defensively, Morton were strong, winning 73% of defensive duels and 57% of aerial duels, compared to 66% and 37% for Airdrie.

They also pressed high up the pitch, making 19 recoveries in the attacking third while losing the ball only 22 times in their defensive third. This shows how they effectively won possession high up the pitch to start attacks in dangerous areas, while limiting Airdrie’s opportunities to do the same.

Greenock Morton's One to Watch:

Jackson Longridge: With Morton struggling for goals, scoring only one more than the lowest total in the league, their centre back has become a key threat, scoring two goals in the last four matches.

He has also been vital defensively, averaging 18 ball recoveries, four clearances, and 10 duels per match.

Final Thoughts:

With the best defensive record in the league after top-of-the-table St. Johnstone, Ayr United will look to continue their run of three clean sheets in the last four matches, especially as Greenock Morton average only 0.9 goals per game.

One area Ayr should be cautious of is Morton’s set-piece threat. While Ayr’s opponents have averaged 16% of corners leading to a shot, 32% of Morton’s corners have resulted in one. However, Ayr’s higher aerial duel win rate of 49% compared to 42% for Morton should help reduce this risk.

Ayr can expect a less aggressive defensive opponent than usual, as Morton average only 34 interceptions per game compared to 47 from Ayr’s typical opposition, and they have a lower defensive duel win rate of 65%, compared to 69%.

To break through Morton’s solid defensive record of conceding 0.9 goals per match, Ayr may look to press high and force turnovers in the attacking third. Morton’s opponents have averaged 17 recoveries per match in that area compared to the league average of 13, suggesting this could be an effective approach.

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