Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Dunfermline

After failing to win either of their last two away games, Ayr United return home under the lights of Somerset Park on Friday to host Dunfermline.

The Pars suffered a 3-2 loss to Ross County in a dramatic affair in Dingwall last weekend that leaves them 6th place on 15 points, three worse off than the Honest Men and three places below them in the standings.

Dunfermline's Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Dunfermline Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Pars have had a mixed bag of results. Neil Lennon’s side have managed to win only four of their 12 Championship outings so far, but they have scored 12 times in only six road trips.

3-2 Loss vs Ross County (A) – Championship

4-0 Win vs Airdrie (A) – Championship

2-0 Win vs Raith Rovers (H) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

2-0 Loss vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

Dunfermline's Recent League Matches:

Ross County vs Dunfermline

Playing catchup after conceding twice in the first three minutes from chances worth a combined 0.23 xG, Dunfermline dominated the ball for the duration of the game, boasting 60% possession and 75% passing accuracy – beating their season averages on both counts.

Faced with a mountain to climb, the Pars would ultimately draw level, but they generated just 0.38 xG of their own. More than half of this came from a late effort from Jefferson Caceres. They were outplayed and, if anything, the final score flattered them.

After drawing level at 2-2, though, there was a notable dip in the defensive intensity of Lennon’s side, coinciding with a change of shape to 5-3-2 at the break. Their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action), which measures pressing intensity, dipped at the beginning of the second half, dropping as low as 25.0 in the 15-minute window during which Ross County got their winner.

Dunfermline sent 38 of their 47 attacks down the wings, despite the fact that 16% of their xG came when they went more centrally, suggesting they needed to find ways to open up the middle of the field more regularly.

Airdrieonians vs Dunfermline

On paper, this was an easy win for Dunfermline, but in reality, the game was far more competitive than the scoreline suggests. The Pars scored a quartet of goals from just 1.69 xG and had been held at arm’s length until Andy Tod (twice) and Matthew Todd scored three goals in 10 minutes around half time.

Until the deadlock was broken, Airdrie had much of the ball but did not do much at all with it. The Pars were the more combative side, posting a duel win rate of 53% compared to just 39% of their opponents. A combination of those factors meant that Dunfermline gave up only eight shots over the course of the game, just three of which came in the first half.

The Pars sought to manage their energy levels in this midweek game. After scoring their third goal, there was a notable shift towards trying to retain possession. Their long ball share dropped to 10% in the subsequent 15 minutes from a match average of 14%.

Retaining the ball wasn’t necessarily the aim of Lennon’s tactics at the start of the match, though. Instead, the goal was to keep Airdrie away from their goal with a high press and seek to profit from the chances that produced. To this end, the game plan was perfectly executed.

Dunfermline's One to Watch:

Andy Tod: The 19-year-old is enjoying a highly impressive breakout campaign that has seen him score eight Championship goals already this season. He's been deadly in front of goal, scoring eight goals from just 4.5 xG. With three goals in his last two matches, the teenager's confidence will be particularly high.

Final Thoughts:

Dunfermline have typically been a proactive defensive side in recent weeks, with a more intense pressing intensity, according to PPDA, than the league’s average in each of their last four. They typically look to get on the front foot, holding a high defensive line and keeping the ball as close to their opponents’ goal as possible.

Ayr are not a side that lean on long balls by any means, but there could be a more direct shift in their approach in this game to counter Dunfermline’s pressing. The Honest Men only play 56.4 long balls per 90 (the league average is 58.2), but they are the 3rd most accurate when doing so, completing 52% of those passes.

Crosses will be a major weapon for the Fife side. With 239 this season, they have put the ball into the box more often than any other side.

Although Dunfermline have competed in a league-high 839 aerial duels, Scott Brown should be relatively comfortable that his side can win this battle. Ayr, after all, have won 49.3% of these this season – 2nd strongest in the league behind St Johnstone and ahead of the Pars’ 47.7%.

But that’s not the only threat. The home defence will have to be vigilant when it comes to through balls, which are a strength of their visitors. They have completed a league-high 38.2% from 34 attempts, showing this is a tactic that they utilise regularly and are very capable of executing.

You can find high-quality football previews, stats, and betting tips at Andy’s Bet Club. Please note, you must be 18 or over to use the site, and we strongly encourage responsible gambling.