Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Arbroath

John Rankin chases his first victory as Ayr United manager as the Honest Men host Arbroath in the third of a series of three consecutive testing Somerset Park outings.

Arbroath sit 3rd in the Championship on 47 points and will all but stamp their place in the play-off should they win this game. For 6th-placed Ayr, the assignment is to avoid the relegation play-off as they sit on 36 points - six better off than Airdrie, who occupy that slot.

Arbroath's Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Arbroath Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that playing on the road has been something of a weakness for the Red Lichties. Only 19 of their 47 points have come away from home, while they have netted only 16 times in 16 road trips. Equally, they are without a win in five away games stretching back to a 3-2 win over Raith Rovers on January 10.

4-2 Loss vs St Johnstone (H) – Championship

2-1 Loss vs Morton (A) – Championship

1-0 Win vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Airdrie (A) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Ross County (H) – Championship

Arbroath's Recent League Matches:

Arbroath vs St Johnstone

Arbroath’s 4-2 defeat at the hands of St Johnstone last weekend gave the impression of an all-action clash that was packed with entertainment, yet what on the face of it was a six-goal thriller was actually a far tighter game that produced just 1.45 total xG.

The home side maximised their scoring opportunities by scoring two goals from just five total shots, while their opponents netted each of their four shots on target in a match that was one for the goalkeepers to forget.

At half time, it was looking good for the home team. They might only have had 45% of the ball, but they restricted the league leaders to just one shot, which Jamie Gullan scored after 41 minutes. This was achieved with a high press that saw Arbroath’s formation line average 54 metres and 6.0 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which is a measure of pressing intensity. The pressing, in particular, was a far higher intensity than they have typically used in the Championship this season, when they average 10.56.

After the break, two things happened. Firstly, Arbroath sat deeper, with their average formation line dropping to 40.2m while their pressing intensity dropped, particularly in the first 30 minutes of the second half, when St Johnstone scored three times.

Having been aggressive and direct in the first half, they lost their potency after the break and were made to pay. Curiously, they were also terrible from throw-ins, completing just 19 of 34 attempted.

Morton vs Arbroath

Arbroath suffered a 2-1 loss in Greenock against Morton in an encounter they dominated but struggled to fashion good opportunities in. This was reflected by the fact that they had 56.6% of the ball and 15 shots but generated only 0.75 xG.

David Gold’s side came into this game off the back of three successive clean sheets but were unable to show that same level of defensive rigour in the opening 33 minutes as they faced six shots and conceded two goals. Even after the break, Arbroath were not particularly assured as their opponents had four efforts worth more than 0.1 xG each.

It was notable that Arbroath struggled to get close to the goal. Although they had 13 touches in the penalty box - almost the average for the season (13.34) - their average shot distance was 21.36m, which is the 2nd-highest figure they have recorded in the league in 2026.

When the Red Lichties did get into shooting positions, the overwhelming threat came from no.10 Findlay Marshall, who scored his 11th of the season, and Jacob MacIntyre, who combined for nine efforts.

While 94% of Arbroath's xG came from the right and through the middle, they primarily attacked down the left side, with 48% of their raids going down that flank for just 6% of xG created.

Arbroath's One to Watch:

Findlay Marshall: With 11 Championship goals to his credit this season, the 19-year-old Aberdeen loanee has firmly established himself as the Red Lichties’ chief offensive threat. Although Arbroath have lost their last two, Marshall has a goal and an assist across those games and comes into this encounter averaging 2.3 shots per match and 1.0 on target.   

Final Thoughts:

Arbroath have had two distinct playing patterns in recent weeks. At home, they have used a 4-2-3-1 system, but in their last couple of away games, and indeed in their 1-1 draw at home with Ayr in March, they have aligned themselves in a 4-4-2 shape. This has likely been borne out in an attempt to shake the team out of their spell of travel sickness.

While Arbroath are the league’s 4th-highest scorers, finding the net has not been easy in recent weeks. In their last seven games, they have scored only five goals. What is perhaps most concerning is the low quality of opportunities they have fashioned. Across those matches, they have generated just 4.93 xG, an average of 0.99 per game, down on their season average of 1.15.

Indeed, with 1.14 xGA, the margins that Arbroath have been working on this season to raise themselves to 3rd in the Championship have been razor-thin. With 43.3 expected points, they are somewhat fortunate to be above Ayr in the table, given the Honest Men have 44.8 expected points.

How is this game likely to look? With just 45% possession this season, it would appear that Arbroath are quite happy giving up the ball to their opponents, yet in their last couple of matches, they have actually had more of it than St Johnstone, the league leaders in this statistic, and Morton.

Given Arbroath's difficulty in creating chances in those matches - ifve shots against St Johnstone and just 0.75 xG against Morton - it would not be the end of the world for Ayr if they were to dominate in this regard again.

One area that Ayr will need to find a solution for is Arbroath’s defensive physicality. Not only do the Red Lichties win more defensive duels than any other team - 65.4% success rate - they also commit the 2nd-fewest fouls in the league. They are both strong and fair at the back.

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