Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Arbroath

Ayr United go chasing their first win in four matches when they host Arbroath at Somerset Park on Saturday.

A home victory would carry Scott Brown’s men, who sit 5th in the league on 19 points, ahead of their guests, who are both two places and two points better off.

Dunfermline's Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Arbroath Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Red Lichties are strong at home, but not as impressive on the road. The Angus side have failed to win any of their last four away matches, but have won their last three Gayfield clashes.

1-0 Loss vs Morton (A) – Championship

3-0 Win vs Ross County (H) – Championship

1-0 Loss vs Airdrie (A) – Championship

3-1 Win vs St Johnstone (H) – Championship

4-1 Win vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

Dunfermline's Recent League Matches:

Morton vs Arbroath

Arbroath might have suffered a 1-0 loss against Morton last weekend, but they were unfortunate to leave Cappielow with nothing after an evenly balanced match. David Gold’s side created 1.44xG and faced 1.37, but a first-half goal from Kris Moore decided the match.

Possession was not a target for the Angus club. They had only 46% of the ball and sought to attack quickly when in possession. This was reflected by 0.52 attacks per minute over the course of the game and an average pass length of 21.61m – around their average for the season of 21.94m.

The focus of the attacks was down the flanks. Arbroath sought to use width in their play and get into deep areas towards the corners. They mustered 18 crosses, with 14 of these coming from the space between the 18-yard box and the byline. In many ways, this was a successful tactic. Arbroath created five chances that resulted in a shot with a PSxG (Post-Shot Expected Goals) of 0.4 or higher, with Morton keeper Jack Storer having an exceptional game, as his saves were worth 2.82 goals for his side.

The Red Litchies seemed to have pinpointed the goalkeeper’s reticence to come for crossed balls as a source of weakness, but while they got five headed efforts on target from these, the keeper thwarted them with his reflexes. This explains why their average shot distance was from just 13.62m – by far their smallest figure of the season, and well below their average of 18.63m.

Defensively, Arbroath had a good game. Morton were limited to 10 shots – below the Red Lichties’ season average of 11 – and managed only three on target. What few chances were allowed, though, were significant ones. The Ton had five shots with an xG value of 0.15 or higher. In recording 1.37xGA, Arbroath were exactly on their season average.

Arbroath vs Ross County

Arbroath ran out easy 3-0 winners against Ross County at Gayfield a fortnight ago, but there’s little doubt that the opening goal arriving through Harry Cochrane after 8 minutes played a big role in the direction of the game.

The Red Lichties made a rapid start to the game, winning 55% of duels in the opening 15 minutes, and bossing 68% of the ball during this time. Even before the opener, they had seen Aarn Muirhead go close with a head.

Much of the remainder of the first half was spent managing Ross County. The visitors’ share of possession rose above 55% for the remainder of the period, but while the Staggies sought a quick response, mustering 0.8 attacks per minute between minutes 16-30, the guests were limited to low-quality scoring chances. Ross County managed just five shots from inside the box, and created their only big chance when they were already three goals down.

Arbroath, meanwhile, were clinical offensively. They posted 17 shots and seven on target. Both were season-high figures, but while several of these were speculative – only five had an xG greater than 0.1. In fact, their efforts that found the net had a combined xG of just 0.28.

Arbroath's One to Watch:

Taylor Steven: The on-loan St Johnstone midfielder has been Arbroath’s standout figure in recent matches. After grabbing two goals and one assist in his last couple of home matches, which included a man-of-the-match display against Ross County, he will be aiming to take his strong Gayfield form onto the road.

Final Thoughts:

Arbroath have two distinct ways of playing. At home, they tend to press their opponents and seek to be proactive, but on the road, they are more conservative and happier to sit in. This is reflected by the sharp difference in PPDA, a measure of pressing intensity in which a lower figure represents more pressure being put on the opponent. On their travels, they have never been below 11.5; at home they have only once been above 8.7.

Ayr should expect the visitors to sit in and try to play directly on the counterattack. Based on last week’s trip to Greenock, you would expect them to attack the wide areas to get crosses into the box, yet, with 13.97 crosses per 90 this season, this is not their usual tactic. It may well be that it was a plan devised specifically to play Morton.

That’s not to say that the visiting side will not attempt an aerial route. Arbroath, after all, lead the league with 939 long passes. With 950 aerial duels, only Dunfermline (973) have been involved in more battles of this kind than David Gold’s side. Ayr look reasonably equipped to deal with this problem, as they won 47.6% of these situations – marginally better than Arbroath’s 46.5%.

With Arbroath likely to sit in, where can they be hurt? Morton caught them out with a quick free kick that led to a goal last week, while the Angus side have also been punished by conceding in the second phase from set pieces on several occasions this season. Ayr’s goal in the 1-1 draw at Gayfield, scored by Jamie Murphy, is an example.

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