Statistical Preview: Ayr United vs Airdrie

Next up for Ayr United in the Championship is a home match against Airdrie on Saturday.

After a dreadful start to the season, the Diamonds have found some form to climb off the foot of the table to 8th with 19 points. The Honest Men are in 4th with 28 points but have a game in hand.

Airdrie Form Guide

Using the Ayr United vs Airdrieonians Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Diamonds have failed to win any of their last three Championship matches. Prior to that, though, they had been on a run of four successive wins across all competitions, while they have lost only one of their last eight.

3-1 Win vs Montrose (H) – Challenge Cup

0-0 Draw vs Raith Rovers (H) – Championship

1-1 Draw vs Arbroath (A) – Championship

3-0 Loss vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

1-0 Win vs Morton (A) – Championship

Airdrie's Recent League Matches:

Airdrie vs Raith Rovers

Airdrie were held to a scoreless draw at home against Raith Rovers, but merited better against the Kirkcaldy club based on the quality of chances they created in the game. The Diamonds generated 1.45 xG and had only 0.46 xGA, despite having fewer shots than their rivals. While Raith’s average shot generated only 0.038, Airdrie’s average effort was worth 0.145 xG.

Rather than creating a series of big chances - Airdrie only had two such efforts over the course of the match - they fashioned a high volume of opportunities worth between 0.1 and 0.2 xG. They had five of those chances altogether.

Exploiting their strength on the left was key to this. Of Airdrie’s 36 attacks, 20 came from this area. Euan Henderson played in an advanced area on the left and was responsible for 0.9 xG alone, and it was notable that when he moved away from this zone with 23 minutes remaining, Airdrie managed only one more shot. But while they were strong going forward on this wing, they allowed themselves to be exposed defensively and gave up 78% of Raith’s xG down this flank.

Set pieces were also a strong suit for the Diamonds. They had six corners and managed to get shots away from 50% of them, while over the season their average is 29.6%. Long throws were also a feature of their offensive play.

Airdrie were a real success story out of possession, and they managed to prevent Raith from causing any significant issues with a very passive defensive stance. They allowed 43 passes per defensive action (PPDA), which points to them being very conservative. This is entirely out of character; this season, they have averaged 12.91 in this regard and had been below 10 in four of their previous five matches.

Arbroath vs Airdrie

Airdrie went to Arbroath a couple of days after Christmas and won an impressive point at Gayfield thanks to a 1-1 draw. They might have been second best over the course of the match, but not to such a degree that the point was unmerited. From 48% of the ball, the Diamonds generated 1.29 xG but also faced more shots than they managed and had 1.74 xGA.

This data, however, is skewed by Airdrie’s strong finish to the game, which coincided with Arbroath going down to 10 men. Indeed, it was during this period that the equalising goal came from Lewis Strapp following a scrappy corner.

Even before then, there was evidence that the match was starting to turn, with Arbroath losing control of the ball after the break. In the first half, they had 58% of the ball, but this dropped to 43% in the second period. The hosts’ long pass share rose from 15% to 28% while accuracy plummeted to 57% from 75%.

This change seems to have been largely on the part of the hosts. Airdrie more-or-less maintained their position on the pitch, with formation line creeping up to 48.6m from 47.1m and pressing intensity remaining broadly consistent at 8.3 PPDA in the second half compared to 7.7 PPDA in the first.

Airdrie's One to Watch:

Euan Henderson: The attacker distinguished himself against Raith Rovers by being Airdrie’s main attack threat, offering five shots for 0.9 xG. He also led the team with six touches in the opposition box. This should have come as little surprise, given he leads the Diamonds with eight goals (Gavin Gallagher is next with two), and leads them both in terms of shots (2.5) and shots on target (1.0) per match.  

Final Thoughts:

Airdrie are a very different team now than the one that began the season, and even losing 1-0 to Ayr when the sides met in November, they were highly competitive in that encounter, with the Honest Men scoring one of just six shots. Since then, Airdrie have lost only one of eight, while they are undefeated on their travels, winning three of four.

Airdrie’s xG this season demonstrates their improvement. They failed to produce a single game in their first eight in which they mustered over 0.9 xG. They have not been below 0.98 xG in their last eight. Although they have scored only one in their last three games and four in their last six, in the league, they are performing to a higher standard than this, with 7.42 xG created.

Set pieces have been a valuable route to goal for Aaron Taylor-Sinclair’s side, particularly in recent weeks. Having averaged a shot from 12.1% of set pieces overall this season, they have increased that to 19.6% of set pieces in their last three. Corners will be a particular source of danger. Airdrie have had seven shots from their last 13 corners, which is a superb return.

They are also a team that is increasingly confident in taking command of matches by bossing the ball, although it should be stressed that this has not been evident in their last couple of games. With a season average of 49.8% possession, they have been above 50% of the ball in four of their last six.

Equally, there is a notable upward trend in deep completed passes. Before facing Ayr last time out, they had never had more than eight of those in a match since the opening game of the season and averaged 4.57 per game. Over their last half dozen outings, they have averaged 9.83.

Airdrie are an improved side, and one that is clearly still evolving.

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