Statistical Preview: Arbroath vs Ayr United (Feb)

After the disappointment of last week’s Challenge Cup encounter with St Johnstone being postponed, Ayr United travel to Arbroath for Championship action.

The Red Lichties lie in 3rd place in the league on 37 points. Ayr are one spot worse off on 32 points, but with a game in hand, the trip to Gayfield represents a chance to close the gap to the Angus outfit.

Arbroath's Form Guide

Using the Arbroath vs Ayr United Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Red Lichties' recent record may be poor, but they are formidable at home. They have lost only one of 11 home outings this season, with that 5-0 loss against Dunfermline in September accounting for nearly half the 12 goals they’ve leaked at Gayfield. Expect a tough test.

2-2 Draw (lost 5-3 on penalties) vs Airdrie (H) – Challenge Cup

2-1 Loss vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

1-1 Draw vs Morton (H) – Championship

3-3 Draw (lost 4-2 on penalties) vs Airdrie (H) – Scottish Cup

3-0 Win vs East Fife (A) – Challenge Cup

Arbroath's Recent League Matches:

Queen's Park vs Arbroath

Arbroath might have gone down 2-1 to Queen’s Park a fortnight ago, but David Gold’s side actually produced one of their most exciting performances of the season going forward. They generated 2.15 xG, which was their 2nd highest figure in the Championship this season, with 16 shots well above their average of 10.83.

This match was a rare example of a game in which Arbroath dominated the ball. They posted 56.4% possession, representing just the 5th occasion this term in which they have had more of the ball than their opponents. Indeed, their average of 44.3% ranks 9th in the division, only ahead of Queen’s Park.

Arbroath used the ball well, working shots in dangerous areas. They had seven shots from inside the box while their average shot distance of 17.07m was their lowest since November 8th. This was achieved with a more patient approach than usual. Only 15.5% of their passes went long – well below their season average of 20.65% - while their average passes per possession was up at 3.65. Equally, Arbroath used the ball more quickly than usual, with their match tempo of 16.06 marginally faster than their usual 15.45.

Out of possession, they were also proactive. Their season average of passes allowed per defensive action sits at 11.13, more than twice as big as their 5.39 figure in this encounter.

What was notable was that in the second half - particularly the first 30 minutes - they moved towards their ‘usual’ figures in terms of long passes and pressing, potentially indicating a slight lack of trust in what they had done in the first half. In the opening period, though, they had 11 shots worth 1.32 xG to just five worth 0.83 xG after the break.

Arbroath vs Morton

Arbroath’s Friday night match against Morton will be remembered more for the weather conditions that created a game of two halves than the 1-1 scoreline in the game. With a storm blowing across the Gayfield pitch, it was football as it seems can only be experienced in Arbroath.

Unsurprisingly, the game was a slog. Only 0.66 xG was created by the teams, yet Arbroath put up a stout defensive effort to give up just a single shot. Unfortunately for the Red Lichties, they found the net following a cross from the right.

Pass accuracy was low for both teams, with Arbroath’s hitting just 63.7% - the 2nd lowest figure they have produced in the league all season. The fact that they enjoyed as much as 45.5% of the ball was down to Morton being equally frugal in possession.

Arbroath did try to play the ball shorter than usual, but it’s not a style of play in their natural. Their long pass figure came down to 14.62% while their average pass length of 18.66m was their lowest of the season.

What was notable about this game was the intensity of the two teams out of possession. Arbroath sat at 3.61 PPDA (passes per defensive action), highlighting both the difficulties Morton had keeping the ball but also the pressure they were being put under by the hosts, who are typically far more conservative with 11.13 in this regard.

Arbroath's One to Watch:

Findlay Marshall: The on-loan Aberdeen midfielder has chipped in with a club-high eight goals this season and has established himself as the main shooting threat for the Red Lichties. He averages 2.4 shots per 90 and last week at Queen’s Park had a season-high six efforts, two of which were on target. He’s on a six-match goal drought but will surely be a big threat.

Final Thoughts:

Arbroath have played 4-2-3-1 almost exclusively throughout the winter months and are unlikely to change their approach for this game. Retaining possession and building periods of pressure in possession is not something that appears to interest them; instead leaning on a direct approach and quick attacks, primarily down the wings.

When it comes to constructive play, Arbroath rank towards the bottom in virtually every category from progressive passes and runs to final third entries. One area in which this is not the case, though, is long passes. With 61.17 per 90, the Red Lichties sit 2nd in the league, offering a clue as to what Scott Brown should expect for his side in this encounter.

This low level of control over the ball is not a problem for Arbroath. Indeed, they rank 4th when it comes to shots, with 117 of their 260 efforts this term coming from outside the penalty area. Only Ross County have a higher proportion of their efforts coming from range. Nevertheless, they have overperformed going forward, scoring 32 times from 28.69 xG.

Key to Arbroath’s success this season has been their defensive work, particularly when it comes to duels. They have won 66.2% of their defensive duels - by far and away the best figure in the league - but conversely, they have been average in aerial duels, winning only 44.8%. By contrast, Ayr have won 48.3% of these situations and may see this as a weakness.

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