Statistical Preview: Arbroath vs Ayr United

Ayr United fans would have been happy when the fixtures came out with a theoretically  match-up against a newly promoted side in Arbroath. After the heartbreak of missing out in the playoffs last season, Ayr will be determined to start strong as they aim for promotion this time around. Arbroath, however, will be looking to prove this wrong and take full advantage of their home support, especially after a heavy 4–0 loss to Ayr only last week in the League Cup.

Arbroath’s Form Guide

Using the Arbroath v Ayr United Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, Arbroath come into this one on a tough run of form, with just one win from their League Cup campaign. Particularly disappointing was a 1–0 defeat to League Two side Forfar Athletic.

●      1–0 Loss vs Forfar Athletic (A) – League Cup

●      6–0 Win vs Annan Athletic (H) – League Cup

●      4–0 Loss vs Ayr United (A) – League Cup

●      0–0 Loss on Penalties vs St. Mirren (H) – League Cup

●      3–0 Loss vs Inverness CT (A) – League One

Ayr United’s Form Guide

Ayr United had a successful League Cup group stage, progressing after winning three of their four matches. Their only setback came in a narrow defeat away to Premiership opposition, a performance that still showed they can compete above their level. The strong run not only secured qualification but also gave them valuable momentum as they set their sights on another promotion push this season.

●      2–1 Loss vs St. Mirren (A) – League Cup

●      3–0 Win vs Forfar Athletic (H) – League Cup

●      4–0 Win vs Arbroath (H) – League Cup

●      1–6 Win vs Annan Athletic (A) – League Cup

●      0–2 Loss vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship Play-offs

Statistical Comparison:

Looking back at Arbroath’s statistics from last season in League One, it’s clear that even though they dominated the division and wrapped up the title with games to spare, they weren’t a possession heavy side. Averaging just over 50% of the ball, they preferred a more direct approach. Their 51 back backs that up passes per game, well below the league average of 58, showing their intent to move forward quickly whenever they had the ball.

In front of goal, Arbroath were ruthless. Their shot accuracy stood at 42%, compared to the league average of 38%, partly thanks to taking their efforts from closer range, with an average of 17 metres versus 18.2 for the rest of the league.

Defensively, however, they showed vulnerability from corners, allowing 33% of them to lead to a shot. Ayr may struggle to exploit this, as they only managed efforts from 23% of their own corners last season, below the 28% league average.

Of course, these numbers all come from League One, and the big question is whether Arbroath can replicate such efficiency at the higher level. The step up in quality will test both their attacking sharpness and their defensive resilience, particularly against sides with more cutting edge than they faced last year.

For Ayr, progressive passing remains a key weapon, with 82 per match helping to carve out chances. However, against Arbroath’s aggressive press, which saw them win possession 15 times a game in the attacking third last season, they may need to mix in more long passes to bypass the pressure and create clear opportunities. Defensively, Ayr will aim to maintain the solidity that defined them last year, when they limited opponents to just 8.1 shots per game. That was a significant improvement on the league average of 10.2 and highlighted the strength of their back line.

Arbroath’s Players to Watch:

Top Goal Scorer – Gavin Reilly: 7 goals in 20 games

         Ryan Dow: 7 goals in 30 games

Best performing Player – Scott Stewart: A right winger, having 10 goal contributions across their league-winning campaign last season, with an average of 5 crosses per game whilst also helping in defence with 4 interceptions per game.

One to watch – Arran Pettifer: A new signing in central midfield from the Northern Irish Premiership, He scored a first-half hat-trick in the third game for the club in their League Cup match against Anna Athletic.

Head-to-Head:

22^nd July 2025, 3-0 Win: Ayr were in complete control, racking up 14 shots to Arbroath’s 7, with the visitors failing to register a single effort on target. Arbroath allowed Ayr plenty of time on the ball, averaging 29 passes before attempting a recovery. Set pieces proved a major weapon for Ayr, with 6 of their chances coming from dead-ball situations.

Final Thoughts:

As the Honest Men get set for their clash with Arbroath, confidence will be high after a strong League Cup group stage and a dominant win over their opponents only last week. Ayr have shown their quality in recent meetings, creating far more chances and controlling possession, while limiting Arbroath’s attacking threat.

With Arbroath likely to rely on quick counters and set-pieces, Ayr’s defensive organisation and aerial ability will be key. Their progressive passing and ability to carve out opportunities should give them the edge, especially if they remain composed and deadly in the final third.

If Ayr can replicate their recent performances in the League Cup and maintain their attacking intent, they’ll be well placed to claim a crucial first result for their push for promotion.

You can find more stats and Football Predictions over at Andy’s Bet Club.

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