Statistical Preview: Airdrie vs Ayr United

Ayr United’s penultimate Championship match of the season will see them travel to face an Airdrie side facing a fight against relegation.

The Diamonds are 9th in the league on 32 points but are now only 1 point clear of bottom side Ross County. Ayr’s place in the Championship next term is secure; they are 7th on 39 points.

Airdrie's Form Guide

Using the Airdrie vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Diamonds are in difficulty due to their dreadful home record. They have picked up only 2 wins in front of their fans in Championship play all season, though they have earned draws against promotion-chasers Dunfermline and Partick Thistle in successive games. Scoring only 14 times in 17 games has been their biggest issue.

2-2 Draw vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

2-2 Draw vs Dunfermline (H) – Championship

4-0 Loss vs St Johnstone (A) – Championship

4-0 Win vs Ross County (A) – Championship

4-0 Loss vs Raith Rovers (A) – Championship

Airdrie's Recent League Matches:

Airdrie vs Partick Thistle

Airdrie put up a strong performance against a Partick Thistle side that still harboured hopes of winning the title when they visited North Lanarkshire last week. Indeed, they have a right to feel that a 2-2 draw was the least they deserved, although it took a last-gasp strike from Lewis McGrattan to rescue a point.

The Diamonds started with a measure of control, dominating 55% of possession in the opening 30 minutes before Chris Mochrie opened the scoring. Much of this possession was in non-threatening areas, with only 0.33 attacks per minute between 15 and 30 minutes of the game, showing they were not exactly thrusting forward. By contrast, Partick had 0.67 attacks per minute during the same period for just 48% of the ball.

After Airdrie took the lead, they were forced backwards. Instantly, their guests’ attacking frequency rose to 0.8 attacks per minute, which would be the highest they mustered in the game. Partick’s pressing became more intense, moving from 8.6 passes allowed per defensive action in the first half to 5.3 in the second.

But the complexion of the game changed again after Partick scored 2 quick goals to lead by the hour mark. The Jags tried to finish Airdrie off by moving into a 4-4-2 formation from a 4-1-4-1, which prompted the home side to become more direct and also step up their defensive intensity to a match-high 6.1 PPDA in the closing 15 minutes as they chased the game.

What was striking about Airdrie’s performance was the balance on their side when they attacked. Of their 41 attacks, 13 went down the left, with 14 through the centre and 14 down the left. Despite this, 59% of their xG came from through the middle.

Airdrie vs Dunfermline

Airdrie missed a golden chance to put some distance between themselves and the foot of the table as they were held 2-2 against a much-changed Dunfermline side that clearly had its thoughts on the weekend’s Scottish Cup semi-final against Falkirk. It was a match that had little pattern to it, but after going 2-0 up, the Diamonds will feel they should have closed it out.

Key to Airdrie taking the lead into the break was a stout defensive effort. Dunfermline’s first effort of the game came after 42 minutes. This was achieved without doing anything exceptional. Their defensive intensity of 9.2 PPDA, for instance, was a little more intense than their season average of 11.5, but their duel win rate of 74.2% was solid and above their standard 63.8%.

Dunfermline’s sloppiness in possession certainly played a part. The Pars completed only 79% of their passes in the first half, despite only going long 10% of the time.

Airdrie quickly made it 2-0 in the second half and then set about protecting that advantage. Their PPDA in the second half rose to 18.7 – more than twice their first half figure – indicating that they were sitting off their opponents. They also became more direct. Only 10% of their passes in the first half went long, but 18% after the break did. It meant that they launched more attacks per minute in the second period (0.35) than they did in the first half (0.31), despite sitting back. These were far less effective, with just 0.11xG fashioned after the break compared to 0.31 in the first period.

Dunfermline, meanwhile, became more accurate, and while they only mustered 3 more shots, these were all high-quality opportunities, and they were able to score twice to give a tight game statistically the outcome it deserved.

Airdrie's One to Watch:

Chris Mochrie: The big striker has not had a particularly outstanding season, but he’s showing signs of coming good just when his team needs him. He has scored 3 foals in the last 4 games, while he also has an assist in that time. For a team that has been shy of goals this term, it has been a precious contribution.

Final Thoughts:

The time to pick Airdrie off is in the second half of games. Across their last 6 Championship fixtures, they have kept 5 clean sheets in the opening period, with title-winning St Johnstone the only side to have breached their defences in that time. By contrast, they have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 5 in the second half, conceding 8 total goals.

Another area where Airdrie are struggling is chance creation. Their goals tally over their last 5 matches is pretty healthy as they have found the net on 8 occasions, but these have come from just 4.32xG. It’s a run that’s unlikely to be sustainable over a long period, but the Diamonds will hope it can hold out for at least long enough to guide them to safety.

Hurting their opponents has been an issue for them. Airdrie have a pretty healthy ball possession figure of 49.7% over the course of the season, yet this figure is not translating into scoring opportunities because it tends to come in non-dangerous areas. Indeed, with 32 goals scored, no team has fewer goals this season, while their 33.65xG is also comfortably the poorest in the league. 

Getting the ball into the wide areas is unlikely to be a priority for Airdrie. With 11.67 crosses per game, they have the second fewest in the league, while their completion of 28% is dead last.

At the other end of the park, this has been a strength of Ayr, whose 35.7% completion is the best in the league. Airdrie win only 42% of their aerial duels, which is below the league average of 45.43% success, suggesting this could be a route to pose some serious troubles.

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