Statistical Preview: Airdrie vs Ayr United

Ayr United are looking to break a six-game winless streak when they tackle improving Airdrie away from home on Saturday.

The Honest Men still occupy the final play-off spot as they sit 4th in the league on 20 points, while the Diamonds are still bottom on 11.

Airdrie's Form Guide

Using the Airdrie vs Ayr United's Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the home side have experienced a significant upturn in their fortunes following the exit of Danny Lennon. Indeed, seven of the 11 points they have taken have come in the last four games, making them dangerous opponents.

3-0 Win v Raith Rovers (A) - Championship

1-1 Draw v Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

3-0 Loss v St Johnstone (A) – Championship

1-0 Win v Arbroath (H) – Championship

4-0 Loss v Dunfermline (H) – Championship

Airdrie's Recent League Matches:

Raith Rovers vs Airdrie

Airdrie were missing a fair chunk of their squad as they travelled to Kirkcaldy to face managerless Raith Rovers, but continued their emergent form with a 3-0 win at Stark’s Park.

Due to the personnel issues, that included Lewis Strapp missing out due to suspension and winger Liam McStravick absent due to international duty, they moved into a 4-1-4-1 for the first time under interim manager Aaron Taylor-Sinclair.

During the first half, Airdrie enjoyed plenty of the ball but found themselves matched by their hosts in terms of shots, 4-4.

The crucial period in the game came early in the second half when Euan Henderson continued his fine form with another goal, while Chris Mochrie chipped in with another. They were the only two efforts on target from Airdrie after the break.

Instead, they soaked up pressure, not looking like a team that went into the round with the worst defensive record in the league. While Raith had 58% of the ball in that second half and forced 10 corners, Airdrie only gave up two total shots as they cruised to full time with three points in their pocket.

Airdrie vs Partick Thistle

Only a horrendous goalkeeping error from Cade Melrose in injury time prevented Airdrie from claiming a second successive league win and taking a mightily impressive scalp in the shape of in-form Partick. Victory would not have been undeserved, either. Airdrie generated 1.04 xG to their opponents’ 0.6 before a weak late strike denied them the win.

Airdrie’s attacks were balanced across the pitch, but their danger came largely through the centre. There was no plan to get to the byline and deliver crosses. Instead, they tried to work the ball into more dangerous central positions with passes, and 63% of their xG came from central areas.

By contrast, they were attacked primarily down their left. Partick targeted 26 of their 50 attacks down that flank and fashioned 51% of their opportunities from those areas.

Airdrie were happy to be a passive defensive team, offering just 17.2 PPDA, passes per defensive action, a measure of pressing in which a lower figure indicates more pressure. This is way above their season average of 11.19, pointing to a conscious choice to be more compact and harder to break down.

Airdrie's One to Watch:

Euan Henderson: In a team badly lacking in cutting edge, the 25-year-old former Hearts striker brings much of the Diamonds' threat. He has seven goals for the season, including three of the five goals that have been scored under the interim management team. Henderson leads Airdrie in shots per match (1.8), shots on target per match (1.0) and successful dribbles per game (1.8).

Final Thoughts:

Airdrie interim manager Aaron Taylor-Sinclair is increasingly putting forward a strong case to take the job on a full-time basis, if that’s what he wants. ‘ATS’ has taken seven points in four games against a string of tricky opponents, suggesting that the Diamonds are well on their way to recovery under the temporary boss.

Last week’s win against Raith Rovers was the most concrete evidence yet that this side is embarking on a dramatic U-turn in their fortunes. They were deserving winners over a middle-ranked side that was hoping to experience some of the new-manager bounce that has been so evident at Airdrie. Not only were they solid at the back – something that’s been evident under Taylor-Sinclair – but they were also clinical offensively. This is something that’s too often been lacking.

The win in Kirkcaldy was further proof that this is a team that are happy to play in a more passive and patient manner. Prior to the Raith match, they had completed only 24 crosses in their previous three games, but had typically been averaging 13.9 in their previous Championship games. Now the idea seems to be to work the ball into more dangerous areas in a more methodical fashion. It’s working.

The other tweak against Raith was playing with a recognised defensive midfielder and dropping the wingers back into a deeper role. Previously, Airdrie had played a more typical 4-3-3. It was hardly a revolution, but it is a sign they are willing to adapt.

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